Tuesday 15 March 2016

Bets 15/03/2016 - Chelts Day 1 2016

Supreme 1.30 - Don't think William Bonney, Holly Bush Henry, Mister Miyagi are good enough . Supasundae didn;'t do it up the hill for me last year.

The form of Altior doesn't stack up even though is a C&D winner. Buveir D'Air an exflat horse not convince has the makings of a supreme winner.

Min is clearly very good but not as good as Douvan or Vatour were, though may not need to be. Charbel beat too easily by Yanworth. Just watching MIN though is impressive £200 9/4

Bellshill din't run anywhere near well enough in Champion. Segal tipped Silver Concorde antepost so already have money on this. North Hill Harvey might not have the experience. P Pavillion is tempting based on run in October but will want slighlty better hround.

Petit Mouchoir is tempting but at the weights and with arguably some of the best juvenile formlines in Ireland TOMBSTONE 16/1 £50 e/w get the vote if Min fails

Ante Post Tip from Tom Segal £100 e/w Silver Concorde 25/1

Arkle 2.10 - DOUVAN 2/5. No bet

Ultima Handicap Chase 2.50 - Need hours to get through this. Have 20 minutes. O MOANIAI 50/1 £50 e/w still very much on the bridle over 2m 6f. Never lost that much ground to Alloomomo who is well touted and I suspect over this distance would have got a lot closer. George is in decent enough form for this one to massively out run price.

INDIAN CASTLE 33/1 £50 e/w was 4th in this last year and unlucky not to be 3rd is 5lb lower.

Both Curtis horses look decent too but Warren G's horse on a mark of 139 has to be a total shoo in. Milans Bar walked a C3 off 137 putting this horse on at least half a stone better. Was in the AB last year and orginally entered in the RSA this year. OUT SAM 7/1 £100 e/w

Champion Hurdle 3.30 - If Annie Power wins great, but was never the target and is some respect a big step up in class to what used to except for at the festival. Clearly I am going to have a small Day 1 Mullins acc like the whole world

Sign of a Victory would be an upset, Peace and Co looked last year to be top contendor but can't back him, Rockefella can't be good enough and Hargam good but suspect too many other good ones here. Camping needs it deeper and maybe not soft enough for Top Notch

I heart MTOY but I worry off the bridle not all that and 2 years off. Hats off to Hendo if it pulls it out bag. I don't think Nichloas Canyon handled the track well enough last yeae but maybe was the trip. hmm. TYO is solid and the yard think has a huge chance this year but for me fancy THE IDENTITY THIEF 15/2 £50. I think would have beaten NC last time out if better ground and we know how Cooper loves Cheltenham!

Tough one today

OLBG Mares 4.10 - VROUM VROUM VROUM VROUM MAG 11/10 £200 looks pretty solid


National Hunt Chase 4.40 - Only betting in this because I have to :) MEASUREOFMYDREAMS 12/1 £50 e/w comes here in awesome form but not overly qualified to assess the dangers

Close Brothers Handicap 5.30 - BALLYALTON 14/1 £50 e/w 2nd in Neptune. Hasn't taken perfectly to fences but suspect today he will be spot on. Good jockey onboard to help make mockery of this mark

THOMAS BROWN 16/1 £50 e/w decent novice, course winner and trainer decent enough record at Chelts and on the basis I think Out Sam is well handicapped makes sense for me. Double Shuffle was next on my list but I don't think likes the hill from watching last two races here

Too many accs with the above to list :) but £400 on in total on them





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