Urgh tough but final update below (2pm)
2.30 - Benbatl is top rated here. A Royal Ascot winner coming here after winning a G1 very easily. My concerns are SBS is not firing them in but he does say Benbatl is his best chance of a winner all week. Secondly his best efforts are arguably over 1m so step back in trip is a concern but not hugely? Lightening Spear has run some solid races at Ascot but not in this race for some reason and Bentabl still beats LS on formlines.
Century Dream is a live outsider, romping home last time and a CD winner but surely can't be good enough. The other to always assess is Limato but guess doesn't stay?
Bentable 5/1
Century Dream 16/1 ew
3.05 - Sergei Prokofiev looks decent but had to work hard enough. Scat Daddy has a solid record here but SP has not won over 6f yet so always a risk. Cosmic Law bolted up over 6f on soft so likely flattered by distance. Burj is held by Advertise, Dubai Legacy not run on fast yet. Ninetythreetwenty ridden a long way out to win last time. Chucked out a whole lot who didn't win last time out or weren't impressive in their wins.
Am left with Calyx, Indigo Balance, Advertise, The Irish Rover and Vange. I'd chuck out The Irish Rover only as fairly exposed now and fairly low RPR still. Will let Vange go too as probably got an easy lead in his romp. Then I'm left with 3! Calyx who just looks really very good, but drawn 22, Indigo Balance who looks decent and also Advertise who I whacked into the tracker after coming from last to first.
Indigo Balance 14/1 ew
Advertise 14/1 ew
Haven't worked out who to punt on yet. Hmmm
3.40 - Not sure dropping Blue Point to 5f is the right thing. Kachy is held on form. Washington DC was flying home and nearly beat Battaash and obviously won the Windsor Castle here.
Torn between Battaash and Lady Aurelia but likley I would side with Lady Aurelia. (I think!)
4.20 - U S Navy Flag? Thumped Mendo in Dewhurst. Slipped in France, too hard ridden
US Navy Flag 5/1
Wootoon 7/1 ew
5.00 - All the money seems to be for the Willie Mullins / Ryan Moore Chelkar. Not run for nearly two year and not run more than 10f, yet it's a solid fave to win a competitive 2m4f handicap at Royal Ascot. Hmmm. Might have a saver but I can't tip it.
Coeur De Lion looked unlucky not to win the Chester Plate and has solid credentials for today. Meri Devie has caught my eye after a solid handicap win at Punchestown but on form Lagostovegas wins. Minus the last race LTL is a solid 145 jumps horse, was 3rd in the Caserwitch off 91. Runs of 93 today but is 10lb better jumps horse this season, so gotta be of some interest
Coeur De Lion 7/1ew
Lagostovegas 10/1 e/w
5.35 - Yucatan is taking a huge step down in class and clearly runs best on quick ground over 10f. Put a total line through the Coronation Cup. Mirage Dancer is rated higher based on what I'm seeing and I think is likely best chance.
Yucatan 10/1 ew
Mirage Dance 6/1 ew
Without parole, rhodendan, calyx, lady aurelais trebs and quad
Shed loads of ew accs with above selections inclduing reverse forecasts acs
2.30 - Benbatl is top rated here. A Royal Ascot winner coming here after winning a G1 very easily. My concerns are SBS is not firing them in but he does say Benbatl is his best chance of a winner all week. Secondly his best efforts are arguably over 1m so step back in trip is a concern but not hugely? Lightening Spear has run some solid races at Ascot but not in this race for some reason and Bentabl still beats LS on formlines.
Century Dream is a live outsider, romping home last time and a CD winner but surely can't be good enough. The other to always assess is Limato but guess doesn't stay?
Bentable 5/1
Century Dream 16/1 ew
3.05 - Sergei Prokofiev looks decent but had to work hard enough. Scat Daddy has a solid record here but SP has not won over 6f yet so always a risk. Cosmic Law bolted up over 6f on soft so likely flattered by distance. Burj is held by Advertise, Dubai Legacy not run on fast yet. Ninetythreetwenty ridden a long way out to win last time. Chucked out a whole lot who didn't win last time out or weren't impressive in their wins.
Am left with Calyx, Indigo Balance, Advertise, The Irish Rover and Vange. I'd chuck out The Irish Rover only as fairly exposed now and fairly low RPR still. Will let Vange go too as probably got an easy lead in his romp. Then I'm left with 3! Calyx who just looks really very good, but drawn 22, Indigo Balance who looks decent and also Advertise who I whacked into the tracker after coming from last to first.
Indigo Balance 14/1 ew
Advertise 14/1 ew
Haven't worked out who to punt on yet. Hmmm
3.40 - Not sure dropping Blue Point to 5f is the right thing. Kachy is held on form. Washington DC was flying home and nearly beat Battaash and obviously won the Windsor Castle here.
Torn between Battaash and Lady Aurelia but likley I would side with Lady Aurelia. (I think!)
4.20 - U S Navy Flag? Thumped Mendo in Dewhurst. Slipped in France, too hard ridden
US Navy Flag 5/1
Wootoon 7/1 ew
5.00 - All the money seems to be for the Willie Mullins / Ryan Moore Chelkar. Not run for nearly two year and not run more than 10f, yet it's a solid fave to win a competitive 2m4f handicap at Royal Ascot. Hmmm. Might have a saver but I can't tip it.
Coeur De Lion looked unlucky not to win the Chester Plate and has solid credentials for today. Meri Devie has caught my eye after a solid handicap win at Punchestown but on form Lagostovegas wins. Minus the last race LTL is a solid 145 jumps horse, was 3rd in the Caserwitch off 91. Runs of 93 today but is 10lb better jumps horse this season, so gotta be of some interest
Coeur De Lion 7/1ew
Lagostovegas 10/1 e/w
5.35 - Yucatan is taking a huge step down in class and clearly runs best on quick ground over 10f. Put a total line through the Coronation Cup. Mirage Dancer is rated higher based on what I'm seeing and I think is likely best chance.
Yucatan 10/1 ew
Mirage Dance 6/1 ew
Without parole, rhodendan, calyx, lady aurelais trebs and quad
Shed loads of ew accs with above selections inclduing reverse forecasts acs
Lagostovegas saved the day! You were clearly quite confident on your write up, fair play. All those Mullins horses and you pick the one that nobody was talking about and gave clear reason! (it saved my day anyway!)
ReplyDeleteSaved myself too! Annoyingly had an ew acc of Century Dream, Advertise, Wooton, Lagostovegas and Yucatan. VERY ANNOYING. Could have cashed out hundreds! Ah well, tomorrow is another day.
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