1.30 Supreme - I have Chantry House Antepost @ 40/1 and I wouldnt stop anyone from punting it given the solid C&D win. The only neg is Hendo's record in the race and given he has chucked 3 nags at the race suspect he not fully confident.
Asterion Forlonge is the obvious fave and must go in a fave acca, but doesn't feel like value. I don't like nags dropping down in trip and Shishkin has not beaten anything of value.
Fiddlerontheroof smashed the Tolworth and Abacardabras the Paddy Power and I can't decide between them.
Fiddlerontheroof 6/1 1pt
Abracabras 11/2 1pt
rfc 35/1 0.25pts = 0.5pt
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2.10 Arkle - Notebook holds the cards surely? Watching videos can't see ow Fakir can turn the tables on Notebook but more likley Cash Back could especially as Mullins farms this race with French nags.
Rouge Vif is proabably a 160 rated horse given what I've seen but Im worried about the ground and Cheltenham based on last run here. Hmm.
I like strong stayers in the Arkle and Fakir and Brewingupastorm tick those boxes. I'm torn between them but Fakir was a big let down at the festival or me last year so preferance is for Brew but I'm backing both :)
Brewinupastorm 11/2 1pt
Fakir D'O 4/1 1pt
rfc 25/1 0.25pts = 0.5pt
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2.50 Ultima - Where to start. Actival is too big for me. Ran well in this last year and lost a shoe and now 6lb lower. Connections ran him in a G2 last time out so they are surely hopeful the nag has improved and trainer in decent nick.
Altanta Blaze was battling out with Le Bruil last year at the festival before falling and I think was travlleing well, so keen to back this again as a decent previous festival performer. Had wind surgey so it's an extra gamble but at the price worth it
Actival 28/1 0.5pts ew
Altanta BLaze 33/1 0.5pt ew
rfc 720/1 0.25pts = 0.5pt
----
3.30 Champion - I have Call Me Lord @33/1 and still hope has a decent chance with the course form against him. Eptante looks to prefer a flatter track so I will dodge. Pentland well beaten by Call Me Lord.
Ballyandy could have beaten Call Me Lord with a more prominent ride as he flew up the hill and looks some ew value her. Darver Star ran a blinder against Envoi Allen and nealry nabbed Honeysuckle when 7lb higher so again some solid ew value.
Ballyandy 22/1 0.5pt ew
Darver Star 12/1 0.5 ew
rfc 230/1 0.25pts = 0.5pt
----
4.10 Close Brothers - Benie should not be beaten but not playing at the prices
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4.50 Northern Trust - Espoir Du Guye is still well handicapped and fomr has been franked. Williams nags love the deep ground so ought to see this go close
Whatmore interests me. Daly in decent form. I think has decent handcap form and the G2 before this was hampered so better than his current mark.
Espoir Du Guye 7/1 1pt
Whatmore 14/1 0.5 pt ew
rfc 90/1 0.25pts = 0.5pts
-----
5.30 NHChallenge
Lord Du Mesil 6/1 1pt
Springfield Fox 7/1 1pt
rfc 40/1 = 0.5pts
---
notes for write up
maybe hit eptante, asterion benie treble 20/1 even though doubts
De Bromhed might have couple decent shouts with captain guineas 16/1 and put the kettle on 16/1
hit 3 ew yankees x1.5pts total
hit 5 ew 5 folds 0.25pts ew
hit 3 solid trebles? 0.5pts e
which are preferred runner in each? hmm
Asterion Forlonge is the obvious fave and must go in a fave acca, but doesn't feel like value. I don't like nags dropping down in trip and Shishkin has not beaten anything of value.
Fiddlerontheroof smashed the Tolworth and Abacardabras the Paddy Power and I can't decide between them.
Fiddlerontheroof 6/1 1pt
Abracabras 11/2 1pt
rfc 35/1 0.25pts = 0.5pt
-----
2.10 Arkle - Notebook holds the cards surely? Watching videos can't see ow Fakir can turn the tables on Notebook but more likley Cash Back could especially as Mullins farms this race with French nags.
Rouge Vif is proabably a 160 rated horse given what I've seen but Im worried about the ground and Cheltenham based on last run here. Hmm.
I like strong stayers in the Arkle and Fakir and Brewingupastorm tick those boxes. I'm torn between them but Fakir was a big let down at the festival or me last year so preferance is for Brew but I'm backing both :)
Brewinupastorm 11/2 1pt
Fakir D'O 4/1 1pt
rfc 25/1 0.25pts = 0.5pt
-----
2.50 Ultima - Where to start. Actival is too big for me. Ran well in this last year and lost a shoe and now 6lb lower. Connections ran him in a G2 last time out so they are surely hopeful the nag has improved and trainer in decent nick.
Altanta Blaze was battling out with Le Bruil last year at the festival before falling and I think was travlleing well, so keen to back this again as a decent previous festival performer. Had wind surgey so it's an extra gamble but at the price worth it
Actival 28/1 0.5pts ew
Altanta BLaze 33/1 0.5pt ew
rfc 720/1 0.25pts = 0.5pt
----
3.30 Champion - I have Call Me Lord @33/1 and still hope has a decent chance with the course form against him. Eptante looks to prefer a flatter track so I will dodge. Pentland well beaten by Call Me Lord.
Ballyandy could have beaten Call Me Lord with a more prominent ride as he flew up the hill and looks some ew value her. Darver Star ran a blinder against Envoi Allen and nealry nabbed Honeysuckle when 7lb higher so again some solid ew value.
Ballyandy 22/1 0.5pt ew
Darver Star 12/1 0.5 ew
rfc 230/1 0.25pts = 0.5pt
----
4.10 Close Brothers - Benie should not be beaten but not playing at the prices
-----
4.50 Northern Trust - Espoir Du Guye is still well handicapped and fomr has been franked. Williams nags love the deep ground so ought to see this go close
Whatmore interests me. Daly in decent form. I think has decent handcap form and the G2 before this was hampered so better than his current mark.
Espoir Du Guye 7/1 1pt
Whatmore 14/1 0.5 pt ew
rfc 90/1 0.25pts = 0.5pts
-----
5.30 NHChallenge
Lord Du Mesil 6/1 1pt
Springfield Fox 7/1 1pt
rfc 40/1 = 0.5pts
---
notes for write up
maybe hit eptante, asterion benie treble 20/1 even though doubts
De Bromhed might have couple decent shouts with captain guineas 16/1 and put the kettle on 16/1
hit 3 ew yankees x1.5pts total
hit 5 ew 5 folds 0.25pts ew
hit 3 solid trebles? 0.5pts e
which are preferred runner in each? hmm
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