Bets 30/08/2025

Draft. Bold already bet.

Ormolulu surely the unluckiest horse this season and officially my biggest cliff horse....

Taking it easy today. Rain changes everything....

2.05 Beverley - Regional 7/4

Really should be winning this. Should make all and be too good. Tongue tie only concern. First Instinct likely the up and coming threat

3.15 Chester - Witch Hunter 9/1ew

Everything was stacking up nicely for Hawksbill, until I saw that 3year olds don't do as well as exposed older horses. Then back to the 2nd on the list Witch Hunter. Best figures on best form. Back to form lto. Hannon does well in this race and creeping back into form

4.25 Chester - Kinswoman 15/8

Got the speed and draw to make all. Looks ahead of mark. Haggas likely to have a good day today

4.37 Curragh - I am Superman 20/1ew

Solid C&D type. Good form. Haggas horse the main threat. 

Regional Top 2, Kinswoman Top 2, Witchunter Top 6 pays 5/1

Bets 28/08/2025

28/08 - 6.45 Southwell - Ormolulu 10/1ew

Tracker horse that I've backed in 2 of last 3 runs (not the last) and it should have placed in all 3 of them but actually won at least two of them. Combination of extremely poor rides and traffic problems. Tutty is now in very good form and is 26% SR(4/14 and 8 placed) over C&D. Does really well with her horses who have a layoff under 1 week with a 40% SR(4/10 and 5 placed). Ormolulu is a prolific horse over C&D with a 41% SR (5/12 and 10 placed). Muscatt has teamed up with Tutty and Ormolulu once over C&D before and if wasn't for clipping heals with another horse and stumbling would have won that race. There are of course a few dangers in this, but none can claim have gone close to winning a C2 handicap this term and are in good form. Amerbama Gold and Rohaan are of course c2 winners, but not their old force though are still dangers. Finished 3rd, 11th, 5th and 8th and handicapped not touched the mark of 82....

Bets 25/08/2025

 Few bank holiday considerations.

2.45 Epsom - Crimson Spirit 7/2 - Stats are strong and form is okay.

3.15 Ripon -Al Shamham 8/11 very short but should win. Ticks all boxes

3.50 Ripon - Capital Guarantee 7/2. Stats good and form good. Danger is Silent Age down in trip and class

4.23 Ripon - Profitbable Edge 9/1. Back to form as are the Barrons. half a stone below last winning mark. C&D winner. Decent chance.

Al Shamam to win + other 3 to place is 20/1

Bets 23/08/2025

 1.50 York - Gladius 5/1 has pounds to find even with the weight allowance, but is a massive improver an more importantly a dual 9f winner. Has been backed all day long today. Checkandchallenge 25/1 has a decent place chance again, with Knight in decent form. Maybe a tricast play with Kings Gambit.

2.05 Goodwood - Palmers Bay 8/1 still well ahead of mark based on last run. Good draw, good claim.

2.25 York - Struggling to get away from the Balding pair Fantasy World 10/1 and Tarriance 4/1. 

3.00 York - If Audience bounces back to best can win this at a big price, but a big if. Been on Never So Brave 10/3 last two times and can win a Group 1, if not today but for sure soon. Rosallion is clearly the biggest threat.

3.35 York - Been on Siege of Troy when was 22/1 just couple days ago. Can't believe is only 15/2 now! Didn't get many decent accas on! As above, gets a massive pull with Ethical Diamond with a decent claimer. Can see these Troy battling out with the Mullins pair at the end.

4.10 York - Chief Mankato 20/1 is too big given the form with Trefor, but cannot afford a slow start today. Twinlight Calls was really interesting to me, but is 5points bigger on the machine which a big of a worry? Poor old Geoff Oldroyd this week, so close to two winners. Pocklington 6/1 is short, but talented and been hugely consistent this year. Hopefully Jordan Electrics doesn't win this after backing erlier in the week

5.20 York - Westridge 7/2 should win this, but if you wana play longshots, consider Sir Busker 20/1 and Tony Montana 18/1

Bets 22/08/2025

 York being a pain in the arse again. No time for in-depth assessments today. Just hoping it's actually GF and no watering malarky. 

1.50 York - Mount Atlas and French Duke both hit all trends. Couldn't separate them in the time have so played the 18/1 reverse forecast.

2.25 York - At this distance on GF, Dubai Future 25/1 is the best, then Trawlerman / Sweet William. Not sure if I'll bet it yet with only 2 places on show and it's not going to be a moderate pace like it was when Dubai Future beat Trawlerman in Dubai.

3.00 York - Annoyingly Egoli 5/1 has been backed hard already. Was planning a decent 10/1ew, but the form been franked now. Course winner and won Richmond Stakes on the wrong side of the draw.

3.35 York - Asfoora 8/1ew has the best figures and we knew wasn't ready for Ascot or Goodwood. Is ready now. Frost at Dawn's 18/1ew form with American Affair has got to be pretty strong and wouldn't have liked the ground lto. 

4.10 York - Cape Flora 6/1ew. Broke the track record lto and won as if will laugh at a rating of 79.

5.20 York - Ya Mo Be There 13/2ew. Ran in the Guineas (not bad considering was hampered early on). If runs anything like that form is winning this, but traffic issues could be a major risk so Fifth Column 8/1ew worth looking at

Bets 21/08/2025

2.25 - Rikki Tiki Tavi has decent formlines and the 2 Cox runners (Wojtek and Song of Clyde) are interesting but no time to look through card in depth

3.00 - Remooz 9/2 (11/12), Julia Augusta 40/1ew (8/12)

Remooz is quite an obvious pick. Improving C&D winner, who meets all the trends. Does have the rock solid favourite to beat. I'm taking Bullet Point on as is 0/3 when running round a bend and is 9/4 which is short. Burrows is 31% at York 25% in August. Stott is 30% over 1m at York and 2/2 with Burrows at York.

Julia Augusta takes more explaining as stats aren't as strong, but looks a classic O'Meara big pot handicapper. Can def win off this mark. Is 25% win and 37.5% placed on flat tracks. Has won on a galloping track before including going left handed. It's entirely speculative will bounce back today, but does meet all the trends and O'Meara has won this race before, albeit with more fancied runners. 

4.10 - I had it down between Aeolian, Lady Vivian and Alice Monet. No time to decide.

4.45 - Stellar Sunrise 9/2, Hegroin 14, youbestterseethiss 28s. No time to dissect the shortlist

5.20 Dash of Azure 8/1ew (11/12)

Raced with no cover last time out and was too free. Ran very well in the Sandringham. Moore booked. Beckett in decent form, does well with his fillies at the meeting and with the profile of horses like Dash of Azure and Maybe Not he has a 38% SR. I've gone with Dash over Maybe due to booking of Moore and fact been running in better races already. Dance in the Storm has an obvious favourites chance.

Bets 20/08/2025

 1.50 York - The Man a massive winner last time out heads the market. I like this horse but it's tough for a 3year old against seasoned handicappers, especially in this race where they've no wins and placed 1 in 25 attempts). Spencer is off the boil so happy to take it on at the price.

Depending on which trends you take there are 6 - 9 horses that meet the big trends and many look on a winnable mark, including those who don't meet the trends. Therefore it's a really open handicap as you'd expect and I could pick 4 or 5.

Air Force One ran a cracker with 11-10 over C&D and is weighted to reverse with Brazen Bolt. Brazen Bolt is on the rampage and I think can go well again, but on paper have to prefer AFO on weights.

Jordan Electrics ran a blinder in the race last year going down to JM Jungle who has gone on to bigger and better things and was poorly drawn lto

Bergerac a winner of this race two years back is back in really good form and can win off this mark

Squealer's form with JM Jungle from this year can't be ignored, but just wonder if the high draw will put end to chances

Shortlist was: Air Force One 10s (6/12), Bergerac 16s (7/12), Jordans Electric 10s (6/12).

2.25 York - No real interest in the race. Thought Gewan 10/1ew was tempting but only 2 places 

3.00 York - Mount Kilimanjaro 18/1ew worth a small pop, but sadly only 2 places. It's runs at Saint Cloud and Chester were really very good. Assuming it improves further for the trip may give the market leaders something to chew on

4.10 York - Fireblade 9/1ew (8/12)

One of 5 who meets all the trends I've used. Last of the bridle lto won well enough and looks progressive. I think / hope will be a relatively steadily run race and Fireblade has good tactical speed. Doyle has a decent SR for longer distance races at York and Cunha stats in August at York are building up nicely. Terrorise is likely a good ew and Santorini Star looks a big danger and of course any AJMartin horse in a staying handicap is, but I think Fireblade can step up again ahead of them.

4.45 - If Lady Roxby 25/1ew  was drawn lower I'd be really bullish about this one. Is 25/1 vs Luna A who is 6/1. I just don't know whether from this draw can take advantage of the pull. All the horses I like are drawn too high.

Madamoiselle 25/1ew is also too big based on form with Rubys Profit. Lost shoe last run so ignore

5.20 - Saucy Jane 28/1ew

Bets 16/08/2025

Decent win for Mr Chaplin yesterday.

Ripon 3.20 - Fivethousandtoone 22/1ew (9/12)

Pretty long list shortlist for this race on trends and stats

• Fivethousandtoone - A big 25/1 winner at Newcastle and I can't work out why so big today. I think in part is you don't want to be coming from the rear at Ripon, but Mister Sox stablemate did it lto and Allan rode this to win from rear at Newcastle. Meets all the trends, stats are decent and ran a stormer behind Stormy Impact lto and is running off 11lb lower than AW mark. I've watched his last race at Ripon a couple of times. Got squeezed by two horses and was too keen in first time pieces. Has now got used to them and got a decent turn of foot, so if Allan times this right could come flying from the back to win this. He has the most experience of the track and won 16pc of C&D races.

• Beyond Borders - Claimers don't seem to do well in this
• Nostrum - Interesting as a group horse, but trying 6 for the first time with top weight. Assume will try to make all and help the pace for Fivethousandtoone 
• Azure Zain - Fahey has won this with a 3year old before, but Azure Zain 2lbs our the weights and not as good as the one that won this.
• Rousing Encore - If this was drawn higher would be my pick. Stalls 1-3 of recent years is not the place to be 0/48. Shame.
• Alzhair - I really like the chances of this horse, handles Epsom so assume be okay here, draw is decent and trainer in good form, but can't back it with Luke Morris onboard who doesn't know how to win here (1 win from 19)
• Mister Sox - A really decent C&D horse and it's between this one and Fivethousandtoone. I think the fact Allan sticking on the stablemate (assuming he had a choice) means I prefer the other slightly.

Newbury 3.35 - Alyanabbi 16/1ew

Newmarket 3.45 - Orchard Keeper 5/1ew

Bets 15/08/2025

 Decent 10/1 winner the other day.

Yarmouth 3.25 - Match Play 10/1ew 

C&D winner of higher mark. Running really well if ignore last run from when drawn high and stayed middle so had no chance. Yard is going well atm

Newmarket 7.00 - Mr Chaplin 13/2 ew (9/12)

Elarak may win this, but was really poor over C&D in a listed race lto. The time before when won over C&D am not convinced beat much and so not convinced is massively ahead of his mark. Not sure why Rhythm Master is next in the betting. I think Sterling Knight has a decent chance today, but who is this jockey Matthew Poon? Mythical Guest, Dutch Decoy and Bopedro all good C&D horses, but all have reached their ceilings of ability and none of them are in great form. Bopedro maybe has excuses last two races and has won this race before, so potentially the winner also.

However, Mr Chaplin based on 2year old form can definitely win this off this mark. On paper you'd think hasn't really progressed but has been running in uber tricky big field handicaps all season. First at Goodwood were was hampered a lot, next at Ascot when drawn wrong side and finally at Goodwood drawn wide got hampered lost place but then finally kept on. The step back to 1m is the right one. Without Parole has limited but decent enough stats over C&D. Beckett has knocked in 4 winners from last 7 runners and a decent set of other stats too. The doubt is the 5lb claimer who is 0/3 at the track, but I've watched a few of his wins over the last week and he's worth the claim and is 20% with Beckett.

There's 4 horses in this being well backed. Mr Chaplin is not one of them. May therefore get a bigger price at some point....

Bets 11/08/2025

 Windsor 7.10

Chief Mankato 10/1ew (8/11) & Change Signs 15/2ew (8/11)

Missed the break lto and had traffic issues, yet gets a 6lb pull with Badri and is double the price. Channon stable back into form and a 42% SR in August at Windsor enough for me to hit the button. Amazonian Dream has plummeted in the weights but has shown nothing of late and don't like the stats. Woolhampton is interesting but think will hit traffic all day long being held up from that draw. The other which difficult to ignore is Change Signs. The form behind Circe over C&D is decent enough. It's run in a G3 at Sandown shows potentially is ahead of mark and I'd just ignore the run lto in the Racing league with cheekpieces on. Was supposed to win at 2/1. The rfc pays 80/1 for those who play loose change on these.

Bets 09/08/2025

Ascot - Shegar Cup is generally one to avoid, but given 3 I think have chances are ridder by Jo or Hollie (only two racing here today with course form, it's worth a go). Sadly, like Haydock no big prices.

2.10 Ascot Handicap - La Vita Nova 4/1 (8/11)

Ran really well in the Curragh stayers handicap and improved last even though running over too shorter distance. Harrington won the race two years back, is in great form and is 2/2 with first time cheekpieces in the last couple years. Only Hollie and Jo have experience of Ascot and Hollie rides this....

3.20 Ascot Handicap - Zayer 7/1ew (6/11)

Opened 11/1 so missed the juicer price but still think there is some value left in the price. Ran a cracker in the Holyroodhouse at Royal Ascot. Step up in trip was a good one. Back to Ascot in a much easier race. Jo Mason onboard. Has an 11lb pull with Prince of India and I'm not sure that's enough to turn the tables, but given the jockey onboard, willing to risk Jo can help turn the tables.

4.30 Ascot Handicap - Treasure Time 11/2ew (8/11)

Hasn't found form this season, and when it does it is going to win a decent handicap / big prize pot (this is a big prize pot). This one has also been backed a fair bit already, and the stats are decent with this one.

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Haydock - No major trends to assess today and I can't find any big price value on the card

2.25 Haydock Non Handicap - Protest 4/1 (8/11)

Improving rapidly. Varian won this twice before.

3.00 Haydock Non Handicap - Royal Dubai 5.1 Exchanges (9/11)

Royal Dubai was an impressive winner LTO. Burrows targets this race and does well with his LTO winner. Jockey/Trainer combo in fields of less than 12 is a whopping 7/9 wins....

5.20 Haydock Handicap - Hawksbill 5/1 (8/11)

The form behind Luther over C&D means this one on a going day is going to win this. Given Palmer still in good form , has won this race before and now second race post gelding op, seems the perfect time to recapture form

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Newmarket

3.07 Newmarket Handicap  - Righthere Rightnow 11/2ew (8/11)

Took a while to get going LTO, but finished well and was a return to form. Is a C&D winner and if runs anything like that could be tough to beat. The price has been nicked on this already as well. Very annoying.

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Curragh

4.35 Curragh - The Highway Rat 7/1ew (2/11)

If runs to C&D mark from that G2 will win this. Only meets 2 of normal 11 markers, but 1 of them is a max. Be warned!!!

5.05 Curragh - Rappell 7/1ew (6/11)

Ran really well over C&D and also LTO over too short. Trainer comes in in good enough form, draw is decent and rest of field relatively average

Bets 07/08/2025

After some tricky handicaps  just some small punts to keep interest until better racing returns

2.20 Notts - Yazaman 10/1

Decent C&D winner on very winnable mark

5.30 Chepstow - Adison Grey 4/1

Likely quite far ahead of opening mark.

7.00 Chepstow - Be Frank 8/1

In good form, likes straight tracks, should have won lto and Saffie knows how to ride this track.

8.30 Chepstow - Austrian Theory 14/1

Likes undulating tracks. Should have won a handicap this season and I think can ff this mark. Easterby and Allan go well enough here

Bets 02/08/2025

Ardestia! I knew was decent. Wish delivered when backed it as 70s! Anyhow onwards. Good to get 2 decent winners on the board after some shocking days.

1.55 Goodwood - Subsequent 11/1ew (5), Feigning Madness 12/1ew (5) (Split stakes)

Runs well after a short breaks and goes on this ground. Balding placed in this race 3/5. Is well handicapped looking at that Ascot run. Stays all you need. The risk is if fooks the start. If doesn't and races prominently can win this. I like Master Builder, but not sure will stay fully at this distance on slow ground. Feigning Madness, highly tried in ground races. 16f was too far. 12f was too short. Running 14f today...

3.05 Goodwood - Completely Random 12/1ew (5), Strike Red 14/1ew (6) (Split stakes)

The draw has got me this week so picking one either side. Completely Random meets trends and gets a good pull with Eljomed. Whelan has ridden it to all 3 wins and low draw dominated on Day 4. Strike Red is just in great form and as I'm backing CR given the pull gets with this that I have to back it from the high draw

3.45 Goodwood - Headmaster 10/1ew (6), The Waco Kid 25/1ew (5) (Split stakes)

I thought Headmaster would be close to fave here. Chucked in on paper based on formlines. Enthusiam is massively tempered with the jockey. Not sure who it is.... The Waco Kid is much riskier. Has to bounce back to form, but if does could make all here and not be caught 

4.05 Thirsk - Darkness 11/1ew (5)

If bounces back to form showed over C&D couple months back can win this

4.55 Goodwood - Killybeg Warrior 33/1ew (6)

On best form this is the best on the going and distance. Ran okay in the Chesterfield Cup last year when running for MJ. Didn't stay the 1m2f. Down 1f, perhaps ground will have dried out more by end of day and can get home. Running off 10lb lower than that. Ran well last time out so hopefully can build on it.