Bets 29/12/2012

Having not seen any races for the last two days that feeling of ‘need’ is creeping in. Am I an addict? No. Why do I need them then? Simple. For form. Not watching races and re-watching videos is a schoolboy error. There’s been some bad news in the family so am having to squeeze this in everyday, which is a shame as there have been some immense line ups, but sometimes you just have to juggle. I knew Segal would come good the day I turn my back on him. I did back Monksland w/o the fav so technically only missed out on an extra £60 and thankfully that was not the acc breaker, else balls would have been busted, having landed a 5/1, then a 9/2 and a 13/8. Phew.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has gone short odds today:

Newbury 2.45 – Tarquin Du Seuil 5/2

Newbury 3.15 – Top Of The Range 17/2

My thoughts as soon as I can, but likely to be closer to lunchtime...

8.30am update...Managed to get a few cheeky punts now but the rest will have to wait till après I return from a morning chore.

Newbury 12.30 – Simply Ben 15/2 is on a okay opening mark here based on being sandwiched between horses 130-150 rated last time out although the race was not run out fully at the end as Highland Lodge romped it.

Newbury 1.35 – Tough one. Colour Squadron is the best hurdler on here no doubt, decent jockey, trainer in form, horse goes at course. What’s not to like? Not sure but something is pulling me to Bury Parade 7/2. Nicholls has dominated this race, usually dominates Newbury when no Hendo and the form with Super Duty is Super Strong.

Leopardstown 2.00 – Hurricane Fly 2/5 all day long

Newbury 2.10 – Want to back one of the Longsdon horses but can’t decide which one. Maringo Bay could be uber dangerous down in mark, but on balance am leaving this as can’t be confident about a single choice.

Newbury 2.45 – My Tent Or Yours is one of only a few antepost bets I’ve had for Chelts so no surprise I’m smashing that formline and when Segal is also involved then Tarquin Du Seuil 5/2 is hopefully a banker.

Newbury 3.50 – My Tent Or Yours 2/5 all day long

10am update...The only other race have time to look at is:

Newbury 3.15 – Segal has gone for Top of The Range which is slightly annoying as I really like Any Given Day 8/1 who landed me a big prize at Haydock last year and I also like Bakbenscher 9/2 who cruised home last time.

Total Staked £800.00, Total Returned £700.50

£100.00 My Tent Or Yours 2/5 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Hurricane Fly 3/10 - WIN £39.00

£30.00 Taquin Du Seuil 9/4 - WIN £97.50

£30.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00

£100.00 My Tent Or Yours 1.45 - LOSE £0.00

£200.00 Hurricane Fly 1.28 - WIN £256.00

£100.00 Taquin Du Seuil 2.78 - WIN £278.00

£15.00 e/w Simply Ben 15/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Bury Parade 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Top Of The Range 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Bakbenscher 4/1 - PLACED £30.00

£15.00 e/w Any Given Day 17/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

Bets 28/12/2012

Another bad day of punting yesterday. Not sure where I'm going wrong, but I am! Ground, not enough video watching, not spending enough time - lots of excuses. Segal is not helping me much either! It's no good thing to not be up with the Irish form so will have a dabble, but I'm a novice here.

Leopardstown 12.25 - T M Walsh is having a cracker and he is 33% here. Ruby has chosen to stick with Foxrock 7/4 so I'll take the hint.

Leopardstown 12.55 - Those prominent in the market look the best on paper. As I said I've not heard of half of these horses, but I still fancy an outsider in Kilmainham 25/1. 107 doesn't look to harsh when you dig through that form as Jezki appears and I hope we can put a line through Thurles. Would have preferred to have Crowe onboard and more hope that his penultimate race at Fairyhouse was not a one off.

Leopardstown 1.25 - Segal has gone for Monksland. I know I should stick with him (always), but I can't see the reversal in my mind with Zaidpour 13/8. I might punt Monksland w/o Zaidpour 2/1 as Voler has just flopped this season, but the one I'd be most worried about is Rigour Back Bob

Leopardstown 1.55 - Supreme Carolina 9/2 has good form in book with Seefood so looks on a good mark.

Leopardstown 2.25 - Back In Focus 11/8 looks pretty solid to me even on paper with a few of these

Leopardstown 2.25 - Last year I was a massive Sir Des Champs fan and I still am but Flemstar looked a solid proposition last time out. It's going to be mental and I'm going to be slightly mental and oppose both and go for Tidal Bay 5/1. He can come from the back like always and if it is sticky will be hard to beat (I hope, as always)

Total Staked £308.18, Total Returned £416.08

£15.00 e/w Kilmainham 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£33.75 Zaidpour 11/8 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Monksland (w/o fav) 2/1 - WIN £90.00

£34.43 Back In Focus 11/8 - WIN £86.08

£15.00 e/w Supreme Carolina 5/1 - WIN £120.00

£15.00 e/w Tidal Bay 5/1 - WIN £120.00

£30.00 Foxrock 11/8 - LOSE £0.00

£45.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00

Bets 27/12/2012

Long Run finally came good for me and must add was uber surprised to see Captain Chris up there. Dynaste was as good as I thought. Darlan, despite being one of my fav horses was not on my bet list and ended up being the difference between a losing day and breaking even. Class prevailed. Katkeau made another costly error and none of my long shots came close. The market is generally accurate a few months into the jumps seasons an favourites seem to dominate the big races. From what I remember anyway! Henderson cleaned up as the stats suggested he would!

Tom Pricewise Segal has had a couple of bets at Leopardstown, but I've missed the prices now:

Leopardstown 3.10 - Glam Gerry 10/1, Ninetieth Minute 28/1

More favourites out to score today I hope:

Kempton 12.55 - Simonsig but can't punt at the odds

Leapordstown 1.25 - Sizing Europe but again can't punt at the odds.

Kempton 1.30 - Swincombe Flame 7/2. Back over hurdles on a decent mark. Hoping the chasing flop hasn't dented jumping confidence.

Kempton 2.05 - For Non Stop 2/1 tentatively. French Opera against Sprinter on paper does not count as Sprinter was trotting but then again Henderson is hosing up and at the weights might be more appealing, but will stick with FNS and hope jumping improves.

Kempton 2.20 - Kumbeshwar 5/1 e/w was one of my horses to follow last year and he was left far too much to do last time. He wouldn't have beaten Sprinter but beats Sanctuaire on that form.

Kempton 3.15 - Spirit River 9/2 was one of my big ante post bets last year. With Henderson's record here and SR's weight has a great chance.

Kempton 3.45 - Pretty tough one, but on previous hurdle form and trainer record, yep you guessed it All The Aces 11/2

Total Staked £295.00, Total Returned £98.18

£15.00 e/w Glam Gerry 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 For Non Stop 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Kumbeshwar 5/1 - PLACED £33.75

£15.00 e/w Spirit River 4/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w All The Aces 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

£22.50 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00

£40.50 Sizing Europe, Simonsig Double N/A - WIN £64.43

£15.00 e/w Ninetieth Minut 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Swincombe Flam 7/2 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 26/12/2012

Well I managed to call out that Saturday would be tough and I’d need to lump in on the last race. Thankfully I did, but no consolation as lost couple hundred quid overall. There are so many freaking cards today, but focus has to be on Kempton!

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has tipped a couple today:

Kempton 2.35 – Dodging Bullets 10/1

Kempton 3.10 – Grands Crus 10/1

Henderson is 29% @ Kempton and Bazza is 35% and both profitable too!

Kempton 12.50 – River Maigue 6/5’s form behind Dodging Bullets has to be the best on offer here. Professeur Emery’s form behind Kumbeshwar is very exciting but it’s a tough ask after a long absence. Hopefully the Bazza/Hendo combo will come off in the first race!

Kempton 1.25 – This is a tough one. I’m not convinced about Rajdhani Express or Elenika, but the latter should confirm form against the former. Can’t work out why the prices are like they are, but the form hasn’t worked out too well. Valmari looked to be going pretty well in previous race, but the one I like is the best hurdler in the field; Coole River 4/1 who beat Quel Espirit couple years ago.

Kempton 2.00 – Dynaste 8/15 looks class and is 11lb clear on ratings. This would be an amazing race without Dynaste, but he’s here so let’s just hope the ground doesn’t do him over.

Kempton 2.35 – Darlan is one of my favourite horses, but there are huge nagging doubts about the ground. Segal has picked Dodging Bullets but I’m going to back away from this. Countrywide Flame looks solid, Cinders and Ashes could improve as the trainer expects, the sponsors are oddly very short on Raya Star and Punjabi is easily the best horse on top form, so it’s very hard to call.  If I had to I’d probably go for Punjabi 28/1 if the market started to move.

Ffos Las 2.55 – Take Over Sivola 5/2 has a strong chance with a 10lb claimer.

Kempton 3.10 – This is another tough one to call. I’ve been a Long Run fan for such a long time now, but I’ve only had 1 win from last 5 from him, so has been expensive to follow, but I will again at 2/1. If he is going to win again it surely has to be at Kempton, where he has been phenomenal and if Silvi really is the new kid on the block then the form is strong. Riverside may struggle on the ground, Cue Card could be a threat but don’t get the step up in trip, Segal has gone for Grands Crus which surely must be last chance saloon, but guess is worth it. The only other one that interests me is Kauto Stone 11/2 w/o Long Run. Clearly not Kauto Star but the form is strong, the conditions are ideal so top 4 does feel achievable.

Ffos Las 3.30 – Benheir 2/1. Hoping has recovered in time but looked decent over C&D. Curtis’ horses go well here.

Kempton 3.45 – I’ve been keeping an eye out for Katkeau for a while. And now he’s back, with no reason not to back him. Pipe has got a cheeky one on his hands and reckon will win a few handicaps this season. I backed him and Trustan Times in that race at Haydock and thought was  going to get the 1-2 at one point. He was cruising till he made an error. Saint Roque is another in the race I backed last time out, but I really thinkg Katkeau is the one to beat, as long as twisted knee not had an impact.

Will check out Wincanton too when the prices are up in the morning as a few cheeky races there!

1pm update...

Wincanton 2.15 - Shoreacres 16/1 was close 2nd in this last year. UP 5lb but in good form and 16/1 feels too big.

Wincanton 2.50 - Rolling Aces' 4/5 form has been franked and will hopefully be hard to beat.

Total Staked £540.00, Total Returned £209.04

£15.00 e/w Bar De Ligne 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Katkeau 13/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Dodging Bullets 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Grands Crus 8/1 - PLACED £45.00

£15.00 e/w Kauto Stone (w/o Fav) 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Coole River 7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Dynaste 8/13 - WIN £48.47

£30.00 Take Over Sivola 5/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Benheir 2/1 - LOSE £0.00 £15.00 e/w Shoreacres 20/1 - LOSE £0.00 £30.00 Rolling Aces 8/11 - WIN £51.82 £30.00 River Maigue 5/4 - WIN £63.75 £15.00 e/w Punjabi 28/1 - LOSE £0.00 £30.00 Katkeau 11/4 - LOSE £0.00 £45.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00 Antepost Bets: £15.00 e/w Sizing Europe 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 22/12/2012

£90 thrown back to the bookies yesterday. Puffin Billy was hugely hugely impressive yesterday. Not as many races to get involved with today as I’d hoped, but a couple of big ones. No Big Bucks today though. Sad times.

Tom ‘Pricewise’ Segal from the RacingPost as tipped up a big one today! Could do with an early Xmas present:

Haydock 2.15 – Mac Aeda 10/1

Ascot 3.10 – Olofi 12/1, First Avenue 50/1

My thoughts shortly….
9.15am update...Looks a tough day....

Haydock 12.10 – Able Deputy 9/4 looks pretty strong as form franked and claimer takes off rise. Even some Darlan form in there. Red Riverman 17/2 w/o Able Deputy is tempting taking a massive step down in class with a claimer.

Haydock 1.10 – She Ranks Me 6/5 is another solid looking favourite with a Listed win under belt already and close enough to Une Artiste. Miles ahead of those rated already. Don’t think those unrated have anything major to brag about although it’s always too early to confirm.

Ascot 1.30 – Not getting involved in a four horse race or am I? Hmm Solix 6/5 is clear by 8lb at the weights, even if didn’t perform well last couple of times.

Haydock 1.45 – I need class to prevail here at top weight, which will be tough but Hollow Tree 10/3 looks tasty. If he wins Balder Succes will get smashed in at Ascot and that 10/1 Ladbrokes offered this morning would have been a bargain!

Ascot 2.00 – Trustan Times landed me a solid price last time out but surely this is too much of a step up against Smad Place 9/4. On official ratings he has 7lb in hand. There have been lots of tips for Trustan Times for Chelts and I’m twitching a bit with this. There is 7/4 available without Smad Place, but I think I’m going to stick with one, although get this feeling of future regret. Hmm.

Haydock 2.15 – Not quite worked out Segal’s punt on Mac Aeda, but will leave it there

Ascot 2.35 – I don’t believe Hold On Julio is good enough to win at these weights. If Hey Big Spender is fit he’ll win this, and I think comfortably too. If he’s not then Roberto Goldback 7/2 has this one. He’s won over C&D and on heavy ground too. Bazza back on board.

Ascot 3.10 – Wow. You could back a whole host of these. What a race this should be. I can’t work out which form line is better. It’s a solid puzzle. Segal has already picked Olofi and First Avenue. After 30minutes I still have 8 others on a short list!! Skybet are paying 5 places so be worth punting with them! Taking It’s A Gimme out as hasn’t raced on heavy. Of those in the race behind Olofi Cash and Go was going very well and was eased at the end but Bothy 25/1 has a claimer today so goes down 7lb so have to go there. Ladbrokes are offering 10/1 on Balder Succes and this one is a no brainer when you look through the form book. Problem is I’m no on 4 horses 10/1, 12/1, 25/1 and 50/1, but I still want one more cos of Pipe; Kazlian 20/1. The form behind Une Artiste is strong though will need to be at best. Long time since had 5 horses locked in one race! £150 staked!

Haydock 3.25 – Barafundle 5/1 loves Haydock and on peak is more ahead than ratings (I think – which often means jack). Concerns about bounce, but that’s factored into price.

Ascot 3.40 – Might be a fill your boots job after a hard day on Ulck Du Lin 6/4 who I ended up piling into after the market collapsed on this one. Nothing else in the race looks great and Nicholls says is his best chance of day.

Total Staked £646.25, Total Returned £387.25

£15.00 e/w Olofi 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w First Avenue 50/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Mac Aeda 8/1 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Smad Place 9/4 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Ulck Du Lin 6/4 - WIN £70.50

£15.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Kazlian 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Able Deputy 11/4 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 She Ranks Me 85/40 - WIN £93.75

£30.00 Hollow Tree 5/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Roberto Goldback 7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Red Riverman (w/o Fav) 17/2 - PLACED £40.50

£30.00 Solix 5/4 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Barafundle 4/1 - NR £30.00

£15.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Solix 5/4 - LOSE £0.00

£76.25 Ulck Du Lin 1/1 - WIN £152.50

£15.00 e/w Bothy 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Balder Success 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 21/12/2012

I got very close to a 5 fold Acc couple days ago. Backing a horse blindly on an early market move cost me. Reckless. Gutted about Exeter yesterday and only a few races to play with today!

Ascot 1.55 – I know I’m not allowed to bet in 4 horse races, so I won’t. Sherwood reckons Puffin Billy is amazing, but it will blatantly be a tactical race and all of them have positives on their side so probably best I’m not punting

Ascot 2.30 – Simonsig is clearly the horse to beat but you can’t back at those odds. Worth an each way on something else and I’d plump for Act of Kalanisi 13/2. Goes well at Ascot, trainer has good record here and in races like this and on OR beats Dare Me.

Ascot 3.40 – All last year I followed Hobbs over NHF races and got close with a couple like Village Vic. He runs Tiqris today but Hobbs reckons the ground is a big issue. Therefore the favourite here looks to have a solid chance. Had a look at his last race. Impressive. Kings Palace 10/11. McCoy/Pipe have a decent strike rate partnership

Lingfield 12.25 – It’s nearly Xmas so Veronica’s Pursuit 66/1! This is purely on the strike rate of trainer here this fortnight 66%. Very little chance.

Total Staked £90.00, Total Returned £0.00

£15.00 e/w Act Of Kalanisi 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Kings Palace 1/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Veronica's Pursuit 66/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 19/12/2012

Shernando - useless yesterday. Fentara - jumped badly and was still in with a place shout, until fell. £90 down and out. A few more today. I'm on hols so why not. The words of an amateur punter!

Newbury 12.15 - On trainer stats should really stick with Henderson and all the money seems to be heading that way, but on the flat Swnymor 5/6 is far better and has proven stamina

Newbury 12.50 - Handy Andy 9/4 based on last run here behind Rolling Aces

Newbury 1.20 - Snake Eyes 7/4 to avenge latest defeat. Somewhat excited to see Poet jumping!

Ludlow 1.40 - Drumshambo 6/4. Pretty good form, stable still going well, goes on soft  and has course form

Newbury 2.25 - At the weights Restless Harry 15/8 should really take this looking at OR

Newbury 3.00 - Following the market. Royal Guardsman 11/4

Ludlow 3.15 - Polly Peachum 6/4. Market seems to be going against but keen based on stats and think Floral Spinner lost his last by a long way more than on paper. Guessing the 7lb claimer + penalty for PP is why being opposed. Just looking at Henderson's record here and in this race makes it hard for me to oppose. I'm sure I'll regret it with form I'm in!

Total Staked £240.00, Total Returned £339.00

£30.00 Drumshambo 11/8 - WIN £71.25

£30.00 Polly Peachum 6/4 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Restless Harry 7/4 - WIN £86.25

£30.00 Swnymor 4/5 - WIN £54.00

£30.00 Royal Guardsmen 11/4 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Handy Andy 9/4 - WIN £97.50

£30.00 Snake Eyes 6/4 - NR £30.00

£15.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00