Saturday 20 October 2012

Bets 20/10/2012 - Champions Day

Should not have bothered mulling over the cards yesterday at lunch, but I did, and I took a minor beating. Had I have won, no doubt I would have said, 'glad I had a cheeky punt yesterday, has warmed me up for Champions Day!' Yesterday was a stark reminder that favourites over obstacles are not as straight forward as favourites on the flat, as they have to manoeuvre the bad boys and not end up on their face. Fairly obvious statement! Ha, but it should be embedded.

I'm off to Ascot shortly to witness Frankel in the flesh, in the glory, in his majestic beauty for only the 4th time, but the last time. I cannot wait. Let's hope I can make a few bob on the way. I won't be including my on course punting on here.

Tom 'Pricewise' Segal from the RacingPost has tipped up:

Cheltenham 2.30 - That'lldoboy 7/1. I backed this yesterday and wondered why Willhill limited me to £10 ew. Now I know. Most of Segal's bets are limited on WH. Well for me anyway. Anyone else have this problem?

Ascot 2.55 - La Pomme D'Amour 10/1

Ascot 3.30 - Carlton House 11/1

My thoughts very shortly...

8.30am update...

Ascot 1.45 – Rite of Passage will have to overcome a huge layoff. Color Vision has a tough race at Longchamp. Saddlers Rock has been disappointing of late and was also at Longchamp. Don’t think Il De Re who won be some serious moolah in last two races has the class for this and either does Electrolyser. Askar Tau goes better on good (I think). So that leaves Fame and Glory, but not convince about the ground even if he did win this last year. Opinion Poll will no doubt place as a solid consistent performer, but that leaves me with Aiken 6/1, who will definitely love the cut in the ground, arguably still improving and, well it’s Gosden, trainer of the year.

Ascot 2.20 – All week I’ve been over Slade Power, but Lynam has indicated the prep has not been ideal, but I’ve backed Antepost so no going back. Wizz Kid didn’t run well at Ascot last time out and surely it’s too soon from Longchamp. I never thought I’d do this, but Society Rock 3/1 is the class horse in the race. He’s nailed Ascot before, the form is working out well and surely the only bother is about him playing up in the stalls? On course, I might back Sirius Prospect one last time. Change of headgear could do the trick!

Ascot 2.55 – Dancing Rain was my hero in this last year, but surely will find it tough to overcome the absence and Haggas has said he’d prefer less cut. The 3yr olds get a few lengths head start so will need to tread carefully even if they aren’t great this year. I was going to hit Shirocco Star, but she had a very hard race at Longchamp. Willhill are taking on Great Heavens 11/4. I can’t. She wasn’t aimed at the Arc, but have no doubt Gosden would have targeted today in case he was behind in the trainers title. She was won after a short break before.

Ascot 3.30 – This is surely Excelebration 10/11 all the way. On paper his last run over C&D with Frankel does not count. He had to try and go with Frankel and had no chance so the rest of the field were much closer. He readily despatched of top class opposition in the J Le Marois and the ground is no concern. There are so many decent sorts in this. I backed Most Improved 20/1 antepost in the hope some of these might drop out as he won the St. James Palace in good style even if that form is not the best. Carlton House was supposed to be my glorious AntePost bosh for the Derby last year, but he has been targeted for this race, hence why Segal has veered that way. I’m still all about Excelebration.

Ascot 4.05 – I think I’ve seen the worst quote ever on the RacingPost “Frankel performs particularly well under Tom Queally” – clearly automation gone wrong! However Frankel is 1.25 in places and now might be worth a lump job? I’m fully devoted, but it will not be a romp. Cirrus Des Aigles will be chasing him home ever step of the way. Nathaniel won’t be far away and Pastorius may well prove far better than the 50/1 on offer if you check that form out around Danedream!

Ascot 4.45 – Bookies will be waiting for this all day long. I’m only going to have a couple of bets and no more in this and this is not easy with the apprentice jockeys, but one I really do like is M J M Murphy. So Redvers 20/1. C&D winner and on same mark as when despatched by Idler so has a great shout if ground in not too soft. Atlantic Sport 33/1 is far too big and Axoim 16/1 both go very well at Ascot.


Catterick 2.15 – Chance taken that Alexandrakollantai 10/1 will bounce back. Trainer has 75% strike rate here.

Catterick 2.50 – Verinco 7/1 won this last year. Draw is not as good this time round and is a few lbs higher without a claimer. But, Catterick is fairly unique so sometimes pays to stick with C&D winners.

Cheltenham 2.30 – That’lldoboy 13/2. Really shouldn’t be punting in big handicaps like this, this early on, but far too exciting not to. Nicholls is starting to bang in the winners already and this one like Cheltenham. Has jumping issues and maybe might need this run as record fresh not good (based on 1 run), but I’m still going in.

Cheltenham 3.40 – Galaxy Rock 10/1 has had his prep run. Loves it here. I will love him if he wins. Bradley 11/1 is another with a great shout looking at last C&D run. The winners of this race have always been prominent in the market.

Kelso 3.15 – Lie Forrit 9/4 goes well over C&D. I’ve got a soft spot for the one though, so might be an emotional punt.

Total Staked £725.00, Total Returned £347.85

Today's Bets:

£15.00 e/w Alexandrakollontai 10/1 - LOSE £0.00
£15.00 e/w Galaxy Rock 10/1 - PLACED £52.50
£105.00 e/w Trebles, Accumulator N/A - LOSE £14.10
£15.00 e/w Verinco 7/1 - LOSE £0.00
£15.00 e/w Bradley 11/1 - PLACED £56.25
£15.00 e/w That'll Do Boy 13/2 - LOSE £0.00
£30.00 Society Rock 7/2 - LOSE £0.00
£30.00 Great Heavens 11/4 - LOSE £0.00
£15.00 e/w Redvers 20/1 - PLACED £90.00
£15.00 e/w Atlantic Sport 25/1 - LOSE £0.00
£15.00 e/w Axoim 20/1 - LOSE £0.00
£15.00 e/w La Pomme D'amour 10/1 - LOSE £0.00
£15.00 e/w Carlton House 8/1 - LOSE £0.00
£75.00 Excelebration 4/5 - WIN £135.00
£50.00 Lie Forrit 9/4 - LOSE £14.10


Antepost Bets:
£15.00 e/w Most Improved 16/1 - LOSE £0.00


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