Friday 29 July 2016

Bets 29/07/2016

2.00 Goodwood - Urgh. Up and down in trip making this hard to assess for most of them. However, Mount Logan 10/3 C&D winner back down in class is tentative pick. I'd be worried about many of them especially Ayrad another C&D winner

2.35 Goodwood - Buranito not sure is a mile horse. Cymric and Promising Run both have potentil but can't yet see it in performances. Thikriyaat looks top notch. Drawn on wrong side in Jersey and was flying home. Extra step up in distance will help. The biggest danger though, surely has to be Emotionless 5/1. Chipped bone and soft ground gone against in last two races, but if he bounces back to best is 10lb clear on ratings

3.10 Goodwood - 10lb ahead of OR; Franklin D 3/1. Red Avenger won this 2years ago off this mark so can't be discounted but does not have 10lbs in hand. Belgian Bill on the same mark as last year when won this; again does not have 10lbs in hand. Can't Change It is ahead of mark again does not have 10lb in hand. Azraff is very solid but not sure has 10lb in hand. Bloody hope not. Will have a big lay in running to give me some support as gone pretty big at 3/1 on Franklin D as I suspect many have. Am slightly nervous on inside rail being a bit slower than bit further in and that rain may have killed ground, but looks a Group horse in making. Don't think there's any harm in small e/w cover bet in Azraff 10/1 e/w

3.45 Goodwood - Starting with top rated and working down. Goldream a dual G1 winner and no penalty?!!?! Not sure how that works. But one trip here at Goodwood, tied in with 1st run in while and Cowell's horse not running to best will pass over. Might regret it, but I am. Cotai Glory a C&D winner. Ignore Newmarket never runs well there. Did well as 3yr old in this race last year. Has the best form on show behind Profitable, but Hill has a 6% SR at Goodwood and he has not has a good festival. Again another could regret as form is solid, but will pass over. Ajaya looks a 6f horse but at the weights with 3yr old allwance wins. But, don't think is trip. Muthmir 7/1 e/w is drawn next to the pace so great. He won this last year giving 4lbs away. Doesn't have that burden this year; huge chance to win this again. Kachy beaten on form and Dascombe not going well. A lot of talk on Goken. Yes great ride in Kingd Stand but was hammered in this my Muthmir last year. Marsha is big threat but no course experince and Prescotts horse this meeting have really peeved me off. Muthmir can turn table on her. Washington DC just a total unknown based on races over 6f. Won Windsor Castle over 5f. Am worries as is AOB, but not worried enough. Take Cover is a huge threat. Won this before, second to Muthmir last year, but I come back to fact is 4lb worse off than last year with Muthmir. Channon, bloody Channon and his quotes 'I think Divine is possibly a G1 horse'. I'm not listening, also Divine is def a 6f horse from what seen. Easton Angel is another huge threat but doesn't have the course expereince so too risky. O'Mearas horses are really stuggling. Learned that from Lathom yesterday. But still Move in Time 100/1! Really? Nearly beat Muthmir in this last year. Not backing it, but just saying...In the prix SG in May over 5f Finsbury Square beat some decent 108/110 rated horses. I make this under the radar but again no course experience, Muthmir has beaten previously so not backing. Jungle Cat big big danger down in class, but I think needs 6f. So Muthmir it is and small e/w on Take Cover 12/1

4.20 Goodwood - Rusumaat 15/2 ew on basis Hanagon abandoned Naffer who looks well in I thought.

4.55 Goodwood - Hard to get away from Always Smile 13/8

5.30 Goodwood - Indulged 11/2 ew


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