Wednesday 17 June 2020

Bets 18/06/2020 - Royal Ascot Day 3

12.45pm update. All done. Rain will cause carnage so not going in hard....

1.15 - Down to four. Ya Hayati is potentially well handicapped back on turf but is such a big drifter on the market I guess I need to be weary? Acquitted has some seriously decent formlines with English King who is 4/1 for the Derby and Palace Pier who is 4/1 for St James on Saturday. However, has not run the distance and Tritionic beat this nag of same weights by 4 lenghts. Clearly doesn't take into account improvement and Acquitted has a run under belt vs Tritonic who does not. Tritonic has also not run the distance, but was bought for hurdling and think the dip killed him at Newmarket more than anything else. My main pick though has to be Maori Knight. Is 6lb well in on offical ratings, has race fitness, has a feather weight and we know gets the distnace.

1st - Maori Knight - 8/1
2nd - Tetronic 9/1

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1.50 - Dubai Warrior looked decent last time out but has a 5lb penalty for it. Monarchs Glen won this race for Gosden with a penalty but there were not the likes of Fox Tal and Sir Dragonet in it. Sir Dragonet is the higest rated and whilst has not won at 10f if AOB thought it could not win would have chucked more darts in here and I'd hope change distance again. It's the highest rated in race and I think the best chance. Fox Tal maybe didnt make the distace over C&D on soft ground. Mountain Angel was the bane of my punting life couple years ago and goes well fresh.  King Ottokar might be a nice ew play at 4 places given C&D form from last years meeting.I could go on, but bored and ultimately we have the closet thing to a G1 winner in Sir Dragonet being persisted by with AOB at Royal Ascot and is the highest rated.

Sir Dragonet 5/2

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2.25 - Mr Snowden at 50/1 might be fun to follow each way given beat a Gosden hotpot, a lot easier than the result shows, who is running today, but this is tough and I cant choose between Monarch of Eygpot, Celestim, Final Song and King  Leonidas.

King Leo looks really good, but is not experienced and very short in the betting. Hmm. Given Final Song is a Course winner, soft ground winner and distance winner will plump here. Monarch of Egypt the other.

Final Song 8/1 ew
Monarch of Egypt 4/1


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3.00 - First Phophet 8/1 ew

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3.35 - Take on Strady or not?  I've tried to may times for the value even though I know is futile so anything has to be an ew play.

It's tough, let's be fair. Erm.Cross Counter, Technical and Moonlight Spirit ought to be fighting it out for places. Technicain wants it very soft. Will it get thast soft? Moonlight wants it faster. Cross Counter an interupted prep. So, if one of these flops, at a huge 33/1 ew might be worth backing Mekong for place money. Fluffed start in the Long Distnace Cup and if not for that could have nabbed 3rd perhaps. The price is surely because don't know if stays?

Mekong 33/1 ew


4.10 - Finest Sound is chucked in assuming race does not come too soon. Bolted p over 5 lengths and only has a 5lb penalty. Plum draw, better win :)

Finest Sound 6/1

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4.40 - How is African Dream only rated 80? Last race giving 7lb ran a 106 rated horse close.

Looks like has 2 stone in hand!

Decent draw and Gosden still on money.

African Dream 5/2! Be surprised if doesn't go off closer to odds on.




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