Bets 21/06/2025 - Royal Ascot Day 5

Early posts. Only committed if in bold. Once final will delete this message but probs not until midday Saturday

Glad took on Sig in first race and glad didn't chuck any darts. I think I over leveraged on the high draw though so need to not narrow the field down so quickly

2.30 Chesham - Treamor should just win. Moments of Joy second and maybe Venitian Lace 3rd. I'm not backing Treamor as a single as it's the Appelby RA curse (25/1 Tricast)

3.05 Hardwick -

Ghostwriter 7/1. Performs the best on GF out of this bunch. Assume stays given Amo jokers bought him for a causal 2mill.

3.40 QEII

Satona Reve 5/1 - Isherin won the commonwealth 5 seconds slower than this one....It's fast as fook. Lazzat is also potentially very quick but I think will just set the race up for Satona to fly home. Hope the draw is not an issue though. No idea anymore :(

4.20 Jersey - 

Commache Brave 9/2 best horse on stats. with Californi Dreamer biggest threat

5.00 Wokingham - Following the Rousing Encore formline as this horse should have bolted up lto.

Jarraff 8/1  Potentially chucked in 

Zoum Zoum 25/1 potentially chucked in under same formlines

Holkham Bay 33/1 

Korker 33/1 

All on the nose on the exchanges. Been a while since backed 4 in one race and not plumped for the obvious group horse in a handicap (MoreThunder)

6.10 QAS - 

Sober 4/5

Bets 20/06/2025 - Royal Ascot Day 4

 4/5 and 7/1 winners with  20/1, 12/1, 33/1, 9/1, 13/2 placed. Frustrating, especially La Botte.

2.30 Ascot - Probably daft, but taking on AOB in this. 12/12 won lto. Other than chucking darts, I can't see who will win. No bet for me

3.05 Ascot - I'm really struggling with this also. Everything says back Shadow of Light, but I don't like horse flipping between distances an Appelby's form now and at Royal Ascot sucks.

*Ideas of March 16/1. Didn't have a good trip in the Breeders over shorter than ideal. Wasn't as effective on soft nto and lto should have won but draw didn't help. Concern is Wayne and how rides today. Needs to come off the pace but can't get trapped against the rail (as assuming they all move towards it)

Shisospicy is going to blaze this. I might put a back to lay on betfair (e.g. back 15s an lay 5s)

3.40 Ascot - First really wild bet this weeks come in this race but just coins of course.

*Ehtical Diamond 4/1 will have improved from last year and has a fave's chance.

Nabeeq and Stressfree were very tempting, but left them

*Brodure 100/1. I think ahead of mark, improving, step up will help and Soumy knows the game.

4.20 Ascot - Another really tough one.

January 8/1

5.00 Ascot - Purple rainbow would have been a big ew for me, but I'm not taking on the draw. 

All three of these draw high and can win off these marks.

Miss Nightfall 4/1 - Missed the big prices :(

Zgahtara 12/1

Maybe wort a tricast with Alfareqa

5.35 Ascot - Hmm still finding today tough...

Nightwalker 12/1

Galveston 28/1

6.10 Ascot - no easier today

Miss Lamai 14/1

Brighton Boy 8/1

Dark Cloud Rising 14/1

Bets 19/06/2025 - Royal Ascot Day 3

 28/1, 15/2 winners. 7/1, 4/1, 25/1 placed. Better. Blue Brother was backed from 25/1 into 13/2 only to stumble out stalls and get hampered twice. The win was worth £8k in a £20ew double with Crimson A.

According to turtrax stands side is quickest, far side next and centre is slowest.... so any smart jockey should be coming up the stands rail if drawn high.

2.30 Norfolk - 

Not sure much point taking on Charles Darwin 1.8 from this draw. That said AOB runners in Norfolk 5/1 or less are 1 win from 13.

I have an Antepost bets somewhere on Sandals Song 20/1 and Naval Light 12/1, but not sure can beat CD.

Clear Force and Lil Brother might be interesting top 4 bets but largely based on draw and can't trust they'll move to stands as stalls are centred. 

3.05 King George V - 

Propose 25/1 - I remember the year backed the Frankie acca, cashed out thousands and shoved £250ew on South Pacific 25/1 and got another £4k. Propose reminds me of this. Similar draw and looks to have lbs in hand. Currently the same price in the G2 POW in July. Seems a big ew price to me

Serious Contender, Merchant, Gunship, Sing Us a Song and Omni man all have decent chances.

OmniMan 14/1 get's the second play

3.40 Ribblesdale - 

Go Go Boots 12/1 when Serenity Prayer is 10/3 fave makes zero sense. Only just beaten by by SP when behind Whirl. Ground at Oaks was not suitable so given a chilled time in the Oaks.

Life is Beautiful 7/1

Had some coins on Island Hopping 40/1

4.20 Gold Cup - 

Dubai Future 33/1 is tempting. I regret not backing last two times. Trawlerman is the only horse going to lead this, and he doesn't go off very quick, could once again be sprint with DF can win.

5.00 - Britannia Stakes - 

La Boote 9/1 form says is a 104 horse. Really decent chance this one.

Raafedd 10/1 price yesterday afternoon so glad got on as looks ahead of mark but now seen the draw less convinced, but already backed it and can't cash out.

I could make cases for Fearnot, The Lost Kng, The Fingal Raven, Mr Chaplin, Tribal Nation, Artic Grey, Hawksbill, God of War. Put some small coins on Serengeti 50/1, Bris Gris ( top 5 20/1)

5.35 - Hampton Court

Tornado Alert 13/2 - As long a Derby race wasn't too tough, was travelling really well for a long time. Was never staying that trip so back in class and trip with a decent chance

6.10 - Buckingham Palace

Never So Brave 7/1 - Should have won lto. Improving sort. Holguin in theory might be better value, but NSB looked much better

Apiarist 20/1 - Will have a strong pace to aim at. Got a decent turn of foot.

English Oak Antepost Bet - Not sure why so short. Maybe bookies also know it's a total plot job. Based on last years win, if reproduces it wins. If doesn't win here might become a cliff horse.

Bets 18/06/2025 - Royal Ascot Day 2

Knew was tough yesterday! Three places 20/1, 14/1, 13/2 and a 9/2 win nowhere near enough to cover stakes. I wrote about American Affair being a massive improver and Coppull being worth an ew at big price, but alas, not to be yesterday.

2.30 Queen Mary -  So many with chances

True Love 15/2. Backed this yesterday and price crashed after Gstaad bolted up but O'Brien has not won this race before and so will have another pop.

Society Kiss 7/1. Solid C&D winner

3.05 Queen Vase - AOB has a strong record in this, so brave to take it on

Rahiebb 7/1 - Good form, good stats and think Varian finding form now, and took a pop on the St Leger also.

Pinhole 7/1 - Was second fave to beat Lambourn. Assume will improve and go close

3.40 - Duke of Cambridge -

One Look 9/2

Crimson Advocate 28/1 - Queen Mary winner on fast ground. Still improving

4.20 - Prince of Wales - 

Anmaat 4/1 - Only neg for me is Crowley. Best horse in race.

5.00 - Royal Hunt Cup - 

Blue Brother 25s Exchange - Potentially well handicapped on that Zoom form

Epitectus 23s Exchange - Decent course form, dropped down weights and could turn tables with My Cloud if improves for last run

5.35 - Kensington Palace - 

Arsaig 11s Exchange - Should have won lto and can reverse with fave

Julia Augusta 16s Exchange - Potentially well handicapped on previous C&D form (Duke of Cambridge last year!)

6.10 - Windsor Castle - 

Upmost Respect 8s - Decent run lto.

Dickensian 27s - Ryan good record. Went off fave to beat Wise Approach lto

Bets 17/06/2025 - Royal Ascot Day 1

I'm not sure I'll top last year at RA, but let's see...

I think it's a very tough day, playing two in each for most of them. Even if I think the fave can win, you know more often than not at Ascot, I'm playing a bigger priced ew chance :)

James McDonald, Oisin and Moore look to have the best of chances today.

2.30 Queen Anne - 5lb separates the top 7 in this race. Lake Forest not won over the trip before so be a tough test. If Cairo wins, just give up. Notable Speech looks suspect to me over 1m at Ascot and Appleby no record in this race. On RPRs Carl Spackler price is big and maybe a decent ew. Tough to win this though. Quddwah, Sardianian Warrior and Docklands don't meet trends. Dancing Gemini very interesting, but losing Moore means surely held by Lead Artist

Leaves Rosallion and Lead Artist the two most likely winners and Diego Velazquez and Carl Speckler. 

Rosallion is the best horse in the race. Won from stall 1 last year and had to wait for room so can mark that effort up. I remember last year Hannon had 4 winners in few days before Ascot. He's had 1 this year and last 7 favourites beaten. A big worry for me. Gosden has real strong stats for last time out winners before Ascot (13/30) which alone gives Sardinian Warrior and Lead Artist chances. 4 yr old colts who've won the Lockinage are 5/8 wins. Sardinian maybe had a touch race at Longchamp?

I think Diego, Carl and Lead all still look progressive. Colin Keane is decent, but I'm playing the below in the hope the jockey change causes some challenge. Keane is 2/40 at Ascot. I have Rosallion in couple of accas and so here are the plays:

Diego Velazquez 12/1 offers decent ew value with 4 places. A lot of AOB horses not needed the run this year. That Meld stakes performance was solid and is 4/4 on G/GF 1m-1mf.

Carl Spackler 20/1 another that offers decent ew value with 4 places. European ped, RPRs are strong, times are strong. In fact times are faster than anything in field. Has a straight mile instead of a bend....

210/1 Rfc DV/CS

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3.05 Coventry - Military Code only just held on over 5 here so for me that's a no. Postmodern ran slow time and form not done much. Andab and Power Blue form very interesting given AE was the fave and now a NR. Be interesting to see the price Coppull drifts to. Might be worth an ew at big price.

Gstaad 9/2 an easy bet to place. Drawn well. Moore onboard. Beat True Love who is top3 in the Queen Mary on Wednesday and ran best final furlong which important here. 96 RPR decent enough for debut and AOB horse usually come on massively for first run. Saw it at 12/1 few days back, but looks like was hit hard which is annoying.....AOB won this 10 times.

Andab 14/1 should have backed it yesterday when 20/1, but hey decent ew with the AE formline. Will hopefully improve past Power Blue

Father/Son Rfc 60/1

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3.40 King Charles Stakes - Asfoora a massive winner for me last year, but prep looks different this year, plus blinkers added. Might be one for Glorious Goodwood. I've been chewing this one for too long and all the horses I want are drawn low. American Affair looks a massive improver and maybe can turn tables with Mgeera. Asterius is the most interesting of the 3year olds, but with sprinters have to back inform ones.

Believing 9/2 - I think better horse than last year. I am worried about the draw, but best horse behind Asfoora whose prep I don't like

Prime Art 50/1 - Supplemented for the race and came back this year much improved. Should have won lto, but had traffic issues and then was a difficult ride on wrong side of course. Has a solid turn of foot.

120/1 Rfc Believing / Prime Art

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4.20 - St. James Palace Stakes - Looking at times and Henri Matisse times were quick at Longchamp and Del Mar. Faster than anything Field of Gold has done.

Henri Mattisse 9/2

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5.00 Ascot Stakes - Reaching High interesting but not a real lot of experience. Align the Stars and Zoffee interesting at big ew prices. I like East India Dock just not from the draw. All the horses I like including Dawn Rising and Nurburgring all drawn so high I cannot entertain. The fast ground give flat staying horse more chances looking at previous results.

Zoffee 50/1 (Exchanges) - I'm not sure can win, but does have form in the race, generally in good nick after a decent Chester Cup run and Palmer is banging in winners. Decent place chances.

Poniros - 3/1 So much money has come for this and when you think 149 hurdle rating to 91 flat rating got to think is chucked in. I mean it's massive.

Rfc Zoffee / Poniros 90/1

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5.35 - Wolferton Stakes - Sonsandlovers is potentially a 115+ horse. Not sure about draw. Galen and maybe couple others are going to set a lively pace here, so really don't want anytime trapped behind horses. Checkandchallenge is once again a big ew price.

King's Gambit 13/2 - Best horse in race over course, distance and at ratings. Hateem not proven at this distance and Hannon form as above worries me.

Meydaan 14/1 - Potential big improver.

Rfc KG/ Meydaan 95/1 

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6.10 Copper Horse Stakes - Charlus a total unknown to me, but it's a Mullins horse in a staying handicap at RA so can't ignore.. French Master 5/2 with first time blinkers not for me thanks. May well romp but not betting it in a race like this, though will likely put into an acca only. Pappano interesting off this mark but thinks want soft. Not heard of Banso before but on numbers is well handicapped. Fairbanks and Prywden also well handicapped

My Mate Mozzie 33/1 (Antepost). One of the few AP bets had this year. His run in the JH at Chelts was much better than a lot of his runs last year. Therefore I'm stating he's improved. Runs off 4lb lower with Warren F's decent 5lb claim and easily could have won last year.

Barnso 20/1 The form behind Chemistry and Kyprios tell me this is well handicapped. Should have finished closer in a handicap but was staying on far too late. Oisin is booked to master the ride.

214/1 Rfc MMM/Barnso

Bets 14/06/2025

 Couldn't be bothered to blog yesterday and of course hit 9/1 and 33/1 winners. Standard. Anyway, only 3 or 4 people would maybe have followed :) sorry.

1.50 York - Yanifer 9/1. Solid C&D winner coming back to winning mark. Drawn well, stats good and form decent enough (8/10)

2.05 Sandown - Classic 4.8. Another one which is 1 mark off a system bet, but there's a lot in favour other than it's a competitive c2 :) (7/10)

3.35 York - Fast Track Harry 9/1. Good mark, stats good. Form is TBC. Cox loves to try and win this race

3.55 Chester - Dreams Adozen 11/2.  With these conditions horse is 4 wins and 14 places from 14 runs and with CJ finally hitting form can hopefully make it 5 wins. (7/10)

4.45 York - Pisanello 16/1 best handicapped horse in race n best form. loves York. Much lower than when won this last year. (6/10)

Bets 12/06/2025

 Newbury 3.15 - Orchard 8/1. Big field 3year old handicap with the market looking right with Boubyan and Manila Thiller at head of it. With the big field at Newbury it's interesting to me that stall 15/16 do x2 as well as other stalls. Condotti in 15 is going to make all (I hope) and set things up for Orchard. Horse has plenty in hand and stats okay

Newbury 5.00 - Rocking Ends 14/1 and Justcallmepete 25/1. Rocking stats are strong and I think can stay 6f. Drawn 2 which not sure about given above. Justcallmepete is a decent C&D runner. Stabl in form, but stats aren't strong. Hopefully Star Style is not fit....

Newbury 5.33 - Dangerman 5.1

Bets 08/06/2025

Peeved about Rousing Encore. 

 2.10 Goodwood - Fine Interview 11/10 - Gets the soft ground needs. Well supported in much tougher race lto.

2.45 Goodwood - Stellar Surprise 13/8 - Decent debut after being slow away over C&D. Stats good. Spaces Blues fine on soft.

3.15 Goodwood - Nearly didn't bet as really tough. Anna Swan was the one was heading to, but the last race was not cool. El Burdor 11.00 is the most unexposed horse here. Gosdens love maidens into pattern class and stats are strong enough to take a chance at the price

4.10 Goodwood - 3 or 4 could win this, but Moore kicked off his soft season at Epsom, so when it's right will be backing him. Aggagio 5.23 is the one who probably should have won over C&D lto.. Spirit Mixer massive danger, but Moore does better here on stats.

5.20 - Toss up between Nariko who is the best handicapped horse in the race vs Racingbreak Ryders 4.5, who's fit, ready to win and can win off this mark over C&D. Went with the fit horse.

Bets 07/06/2025

 Few winners and Whirl's rider not good enough. A day can lose a lot of money. Not supposed to punt when rain will cause unknown carnage.

1.00 - If gets super soft Sparks Fly will love it. I quite like Spiritual 10.00. Still improving I reckon and ground won't be an issue. Stats are good, but doesn't seem to be any money for it compared to top of market,.

1.35 - Royal Dubai 13.00 second in this last year. Good place chances.

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2.10 - Minefield. Ground unknown. No idea. Two darts. Stormy Impact 11.00 (ped good, form good enough) and Al Hussar 40.00 (proven well on soft, but not sure progressed as 3year old)

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2.45 - Really tricky. Went with 3 darts:

Existent 16.22 - Ready to win and well handicapped.

Fair Wind 13.7 - Well handicapped, and stats most aligned with this one

Vintage Clarets 10.5 - Fahey flying. Soft conditions favour this

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3.30 

Delacroix 3/1 looks pretty decent. I kind of don't want to take Moore on either.

Stanhope Gardens am on Antepost 20/1

4.15 - When it pours just think Gary Moore. Small Fry 4.00 and Miller Spirit 22.0 can both win if soft.

If not soft then might be worth considering Candyman Stan 17.5

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5.00 - Chartwell Jock 5.5. Wondering when Law of Design will win. Meblesh a massive danger.

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5.40 - Keen on Rousing Encore 10.2. Meets trends, stats and form. If Fahey still flying of course Strike Red 9.0 becomes a danger.

Bets 06/06/2025

1.30 - Formal 4.5

2.05 - Havana Hurricane 5.1 (with lay of 1.2 in running)

2.40 Epsom - Can see Continuous making all to make this a proper test, probably favouring Jan Brueghel. AOB won this race 9 times. Some worrying stats on pedigree for Calandgan and Gioveletto, even though these two and JB the only 3 to meet all mjaor trends.

Calangdan is the best horse in the race and should win, but at 4/6 not for me. F/c with Jan will pay peanuts, so just going with this.

Jan Brueghal 5.1 (with lay of 1.2 in running)

3.15 Epsom - I really like Defiance a few days ago. Blue Ribbon form over C&D is decent and then also on a decent mark. Varian 4/4 in the race. This is really tricky. The glaring issue is No prep and tailed off lto. Not ideal for hold up horses either.

Think Westerton 14.7 and Botanical 5.1 (with lay of 1.2 in running) will run solid races. Both can win off these marks. Ward Jamila was next on list

4.00 - On Whirl 10/1 but on at 50/1 in a (win lto + Oaks bet). Just sticking with this. No real other opinion.

4.35 - Two Tempting 9.00 and Mirksy 5.1 (with lay of 1.2 in running). Bopedro going to win a pot at some point soon

5.10 - Boring but can't split Miss Information and Rhoscolyn but just backing Miss Information 3.8

Bets 04/06/2025

 Notts 3.22 - Toptime 13/2ew. Front runner, prime conditions

Bets 31/05/2025

 1.13 Haydock - Chillingham 12/1 (exchanges). On a dangerous mark looking at distance and handicap numbers. Always improves after 1st run of season. Bethell in good form and solid enough stats for me.

NON RUNNER

Changing to Stressfree 8/1. Backed few times before. Can definately win of this mark if trying. Thought my be planned for a big Goodwood plot.

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1.48 Haydock - Pals Battalion 12/1. O'Meara in good enough form and is 2 wins and a place from 7 runners in this race. Stats okay. Horse very consistent and should have won lto and can argue still improving.

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2.23 Haydock - Balmoral Lady 9/1. With sprints I've always gone for in form horses and many of these have questions. Balmoral Lady clearly improving, solid run from wide draw and stats are strong.

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3.33 Haydock - Alyanabbi 10/3. Finding it hard to take on. In decent form. C&D winner. Burrows in 80% SR with 4yr old+ at Haydock and other stats very strong. Audience has been really poor last two runs

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1.30 York - Ray Vonn 12/1. Ridiculously difficult. Have to pluck for a C&D winner in lower half that's ot regressing. Nearly went with Danzan, but assuming is fit (and seems a be a bit of money for it, is back on mark won over C&D

NON RUNNER

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2.40 York - Loom 4/1. The Man won me a massive pot and I think the race times vs JM Jungle might give this the edge. Was too tired too look last night but looks like missed decent prices.

3.15 York - Sueno 3/1. Decent on stats

3.50 York - White Crown Start 9/2. Silver Ghost won me a decent sum last week and think the form is strong enough. 

5.00 York - Quest For Fun 8/1. Unlucky lto. Thought Riot in same camp.

Bets 24/05/2025

 Should have gone to bed and not bet yesterday. oopps

Highly competitive weekend. Playing small stakes across the board as the rain could change everything.

1.30 Goodwood - Silver Ghost 11/1 - Looks decent on trends, stats, form and draw for me.

1.50 Haydock - Sex on Fire 12/1 - C&D winner in good form. Teroom 5/1 is the obvious danger.

2.30 Curragh - Molto Amichi 12/1 - Love that Wayne been booked for this. Riding at 41% SR atm. Bottom of the weights, well handicapped, in decent form and low enough drawn to go well.

3.40 Curragh - Think you know I've backed Hotazhell 9/1. The form is there for everyone to see. 

4.10 Haydock - The Flying Seagull 15/2. Likely would have won lto but for draw. Stable won this last year.

4.55 Goodwood - Captain Kinsella 22/1. If it wasn't for the draw I'd be slamming into this. Ran a blinder as Sandown given had nowhere to run. Pitched in at Listed level last time and ran at least 5lb higher than current mark. Could argue upto 10lb depending on how you read ORs

Swelter 9/2 tomorrow

Bets 23/05/2025

Back from conference. So tired.....

2.40 Goodwood - Trooper Bisdee 8/1. Won fresh 2/2. Back in class. Back in trip which I think will suit. Prescott won this last year. Caeasawitch trial form is fine as that's how we picked Story House. 

3.15 Goodwood - Dancingwithmyslef 16/1. Running consistently well. Think the Redcar form is good as again ties into Story House.

3.00 Haydock - Maw Lam 9/1. Best at weights. Needs to break well.

3.50 Goodwood - Exoplanet 9/1. Assuing doesn't bounce, is potentially one that might keep improving and so offer some price value. Silver Knott back in trip under penalty isn't for me even if lots of questions about the rest of the field.

4.25 Goodwood - Apotheosis 7/4 should be tough to beat.

4.25 Goodwood - Fort George Evs

TWINLIGHT DIAMOND 9.00 WOLVES 9/1ew

BEAULD AS BRASS 2.25 NEWBURY 7/1ew

Bets 16/05/2025

 Dante festival jokes as always.

2.42 York - Can't split Salamanca 7.27 improving and good form, with Buick 2/2 with trainer her at York, and Thunder Run 6.5 who will be happier back on quick ground. Won the Clipper here last year.

3.13 York - Guyla 3.75 should have won lto. The form behind Twirl is solid as.

4.15 York - I like the form of Loom in the Norfolk, but not 100% convinced is well handicapped. Hard to assess last race. 

I backed Amestris in the Queen Mary last year. Got blocked and lost a shoe. Not really come on from that. First time wind op though Bell is 33% SR with first time wind op. Hasn't run this season so really hard to assess. Segal has bloody ruined his price though. At 40s was willing to find out. at 14s. Hmm. May have a small bet on exchange is heads into high 20s. 

The Man and Do It Now as both clearly interesting given the form over C&D behind Tropical Storm. Spencer is 31% post gelding ops (which is mental), which gives The Man a chance on that alone, but again no prep run. Do It Now regressed last season but put in a much better show on seasonal reappearance and with a decent 3lb claim willing to give this one a shot. 

Draw may be tough for Ametris and Do It Now, but the no prep run is annoying me for The Man. I don't see much else so here goes

Ametris (If can get 25+ on exchange)

Do It Now 30

The Man 25

5.20 Newbury - Zakerjack 17.00. Trying something here and nothing to do with horse form, which hard for me to do, but it's a mini trial.

Bets 15/05/2025

 Duck me how unlucky was Perfect Part. Man. So annoying. Won't be getting 25's again on that.

2.10 Can make strong cases for JM Jungle, American Affair and Spartan Arrow but I'm going for Tees Sprit 37.00 as main pick. Ran well in this race last year. Comes into it in better form, technically 1lb lower and yard going well. Father and Son to take it. I think C&D is super important.

JM Jungle 8.0 has a chance to tun tables with American Affair but can see AA flying home late from this higher draw. However, stick with this.

2.42 - Northern Express 15.00, Blue For You 6.5

3.13 - See The Fire 2.55

3.45 - Apline Trail 6.00

4.18 - Start of Mehams 5.00

5.25 - Merchant 2.88

Bets 14/05/2025

 2.10 York - Haggas, Balding, King and Ryan target this race and typically won by 4 or 5 year old progressive sort. Marhaba The Champ was 9/2 for this race last year, but is now 6 and not in form. Been backed from 12/1 into 5/1 so clearly fancied for this? First time headgear offputting enough for me. King's horse also 6 and doesn't meet any stats I look for.

Stressfree is stressing me out. Backed this twice last. It's so well handicapped, but when will O'Meara let it win? I just don't think it's today, but will be livid if it is :) Thinking it's a bigger pot or maybe Goodwood.

See Hector is defo ahead of mark and I really want to back it. Did incredibly well in Dubai. I just can't back it on trainer and jockey stats. Also a 6 year old.

Balding's horse has also been smashed in the betting. Sire doesn't do that well at York. Stats are pretty good otherwise, but pulled up last time which not a good thing to bet on next time out.

The Reverend 5.5. Haggas's horse beaten fave last two races, Marquand will know to race it prominently here. It's definitely got juice in the mark. Twice Haggas has won this with seasonal debutants so not worried about fitness. Think this is the perfect distance and better ground will bring more improvement based on ped. I think this is more like a 5/2 shot.

Opps was a long write up. Better win now.

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2.42 York - Ryan, Fahey, Dods, Easterby, Smart, Camacho, Burke all like a pop at this one and typically goes to a sleeper. GF over this distance you want to be drawn low also. All the ones I like are drawn low which actually makes it harder to pick! Although a stat says 20/22 in this race drawn 5 or higher. hmm

Just looking at the lower end of the draw. Korker think needs slower. We Never Stop is interesting after a decent AW win, but turf form a worry for me.

Bergerac 9.32 is relatively well handicapped. I just don't rate Eaves that much but given Ryan won this last twice and Eaves has won on the horse here a couple times gotta give benefit of doubt.

First Folio 14.0 was a decent RA winner for me and conditions look good for it today. I'm now slighlty worried about stall 2, but I'm sticking with it.

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3.13 York - Super hard. Last year nailed my colours to Kind of Blue, but I'm not sure this year. IF Night Raider was proven on turf think I'd be following that one to RA, but needs to show it. This is really tough for me and other than 1 winner, all had a prep run before this race. I wonder if we go crazy and focus on Marshman and Royal Zabeel. 

Marshman 17.7 was nearly a grimrack winner and it' odd was entered last minute esp when have two others from stable here. Is he so fit that can recpature the sparkling 2year old days? Well he is fit and ha been entered so why not?

Royal Zabeeb 35.0 was rapidly progressing all last season and this season too. Considering pace was too slow lto, ran pretty well. Mill Stream ran in the same race last year before winning this.

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3.45 York - Walker is 4% here with 3year olds, so interesting has been heavily backed. Find it hard to take on Whirl 3.5

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4.18 York - Gallant probably just wins, but this is York. Here for merkage. Perfect Part 26.0 ran a blinder in the Cammidge. Assuming therefore massively improved over break. Didn't get screwed on ratings. Ran flat on AW nto (on purpose?) and now has a really decent 7lb claim. Being held up from 7f is not good though, so let's see 

Double Parked 33.0 could also make all and maybe slightly ahead of mark

Bets 12/05/2025

 Decent with Flickering Hero.

7.35 Windsor - Beauld as Brass 2.63

Even with a 10lb penalty, still has plenty in hand.

8.10 Windsor - Manilla Thriller 4.33

Channon 22% with 3yr olds at Windsor and in rude form. Marquand is 20% here. Was pitched in a G3 as a 2year old and finally on the board on 3year old appearance. Should have won lto as well. Back to 1m and back to a class 5. Should be winning a race like this.

Bets 11/05/2025

 Qirat chinned and three others placed, but of course not betting ew anymore so was painful yesterday. Didn't get round to any places accas either.

2.50 Newcastle - Flickering Hero 9.5

Stable in form and has run over C&D before a while back. If runs to that form + assumed progression, which is has on turf can go close. Needed first run of season last year also so should be fit now. Also second run post gelding op. 

2.55 - Leoparstown Mutasarref 5.0

Brave to do this but AOB not won this recently and DV is first run back. Lyons won this twice before and not far behind DV on previous form

3.25 - Longchamp - Hotazahell 9.0

Don't think I've ever won this race, but as I've said before following this horse off a cliff, until get seriously injured. Form is stacking up. Like Jonquil also

6.45 Newcastle - Badri 15 and Fivethousandtoone 17

I really fancied 5001 to win at the all weather champs over C&D. Not sure what happened and whilst didn't bonce back to form lto has run a couple of blinders this season and with stable in form can win if bounces back.

Badri is well handicapped. Needs to step up to win and today has a chance as trainer is flying.

Bets 10/05/2025

 Will keep updating when I can before tomorrow morning. So far East India, Two Tempting and Power Fizz all won at 4.5+ so happy days. Shame about Space Legend. 

1.50 Lingfield - Gincident 8.0

Owen and Crouch both in form and do well here. Gincident was smashed in the betting lto as so assume much better was expected. Liked the way knuckled down at Leicester and hoping / assuming the Johnston horse will create the pace needed.

2.05 Ascot - Arsaig 3.00

Looks to still be improving and back in easier company can win this.

2.40 Ascot - Qirat 7.00 and Popmaster 17.00

If Qirat has improved a tad and is fit wins. If Popmaster puts best foot forward wins.

3.05 Nottingham - First View 6.5

Wow Meydan brought to me at Notts in a C4. Both Padi (who became  bit of a cliff horse) and First View line up. SBS does really well at notts with 4+. Think I saw 30% SR and actually ran better than Padishakh

4.10 Lingfield - Brave byreflection 5.0

Assuming is fit, looks massively unexposed here. Stable is flying and so is the jockey. Got some gears.

5.00 Ascot - Arnaz 3.25

Struggling to find a way to beat it

Too tired tonight to look at any more cards. Maybe do more tomorrow, but unlikely. Will post in comments if tap up anymore

Bets 09/05/2025

 Faves cleaning up so a few more winners on the cards yesterday. Rosenburg in the first would have made it a better day, but all good.

Chester 1.30 - Was trying to get Two Tempting 4.5  beat, but it's not easy. Looks solid. Pearl Eye 17.0 is running again today and if gets a decent start with an extra 7lb claim might be the one!

Ascot 1.50 - Power Fizz 4.75 ahead of mark

Chester 2.35 - Trappy but went with Space Legend 4.5. I think will  try to make all and knowing can stay can last out. Stats all fne.

Chester 3.05 - I thought was going to find a nice juicy one but East India Dock 5.00 could just be a class apart. He must have improved 30lb jumps over the season but his mark is 1lb lower then when last race a bug flat handicap. Yard hit 2/3 winners yesterday so string hopefully in good nick. Leinster is clearly a massive danger and these two could destroy the field.

Ascot 3.25 - Can't let Rohaan 9.0 go unbacked at this price. In really good form and can cash in off this mark. 5 of 6 wins here at Ascot.

Ascot 4.00 - Letsbeatsepsis 26.00 needs to refind debut form, but it's possible at Ascot with C&D form. Plum draw, backed from 51.00 worth a pop. Corrello Point 5.00 maybe the best handicapped, alongside Mollie Foster 11.00. Not sure how to play this yet.

Bets 08/05/2025

 Good few winners yesterday

1.30 - Chester

Rosenpur 12.0 - Improving with every run. In really good form. Previous decent runs at Chester. Well drawn

Copper Knight 11.0 - Old boy still in good nick. Comes into this race in better form than last year off a lower mark when a close 2nd.

110. rfc

2.35 Chester

Brave to take on Mount Kilimanjaro 2.82, but if had to would be with Mirabeau who at 16s

3.05 Chester

Tight between Asburde and Illinois. AoB 4 year old+ are 71% in last 5 years here. Bonkers. Going with Illinois 2.38

3.40 Chester

Trappy but just sided with High on Hope 10.0 on the basis the 5lb claim will make the difference.

4.10 Chester

Thought Wadacre Gomex 8.5 would be around 4/1 so having some. 5pounds lower than last year. Comes here in better form and Ryan is booked

4.45 Chester

Lady Vivian 2.38 needs to win this if going to be running in the Irish Oaks. Beckett 2/2 in this race

Bets 07/05/2025

 Urgh Sonic Pioneer 25/1 beaten a neck.

Chester 1.30 - Ali Shuffle 2.5. Best of those drawn low. 

Chester 2.05 - Rubys Profit 5.5. Progressive and will try to make all. Draw just about okay.

Chester 2.35 - Minnie Hauk 2.88 AOB wins 50% of 3yr old races at Chester in last 5 years. Better value than evens :)

Chester 3.05 - Lambourn 2.63. Same as above

Chester 3.40 - The draw so important here, and was hoping to back the Flying Segull 33/1. Wide draws have been done before so play small on this but will be tough. If Diligently had a prep run would be the pick, but Bob Mali 2.33 probably hard to beat.

Chester 4.45 - Boardman 10.5 and Monsieur Fudge 7.5

Bets 06/05/2025

 For fun only. Not giving away last 3 days winnings

Bets 05/05/2025

 Decent yesterday. An 11 winner and Simmering ran a cracker into 3rd at 40s.

3.00 Curragh - Murkala 8.5. Back to good ground. If reproduces either C&D run with a decent 7lb claim can win this. Murtagh won it last year. 

3.35 Curragh - And So To Bed 15.00 Ran behind some smart horses at Curragh last season. What was encouraging was the final race. Dylan know him well. JOB likes this race.

5.20 Curragh - White Clover 19.00 Ran a blinder behind plot job Tinas Indian. over C&D. A repeat of that would be enough to go close today. Carroll won on the horse before and stable in decent nick including a 33/1 yesterday

Bets 04/05/2025

Only two winners from 8 bets, but was at 13.5 and 5.0, so finally a winning day. Always great to nab the big one too.

2.55 Newmarket - Really playing against some stats, but fancy Story House 11.00. Saffie 1/1 on the horse. 14f is 100% best trip. Decent first run of season and will be fit now. Ran well enough in the Casearwitch trial on quick ground given was too far.

3.55 Newmarket - Experience is really important in this. 195/196 runners with less than 4 runs have failed. Knocks 4 out. Interesting I read about joint sire index of 16.8 is needed to win this. Knocked couple more out. Based on some ratings shot couple more. Simmering 40.0 and Lake Victoria 4.0 is where I ended. Both are in doubles with Ruling Court, so fingers crossed. No filly has ever completed the Breeders Cup and 1KG double, so a stat to bust for Lake Victoria. Desert Flower is just short on sire index and only Minding has won both Fillies Mile and 1KG. Basically I'm saying come on Simmering, although lto trainer said did not like quick ground....

Too tired to look at any more.

Bets 03/05/2025

 1.10 Newmarket - Couple horses stepping back in trip which can't have. Unequal Love 2.12 won this last year and clear on ratings.

1.45 Newmarket  - Lethal Levi 11.5 is well handicapped and can win one more before moving into pattern races.

2.20 Newmarket - Hand of God obvious pick but first time gelding. Fox Legacy 13.5 interests me most. Another Stoute horse who looked progressive after than 12 lenght romp. Many have now done well at new yards. With baling romping yesterday could be another. 

2.55 Newmarket - Washington Heights 5.0 down in class good track form.

3.35 Newmarket - Ruling Court 5.0

5.15 Newmarket - Rocking The Boat 7.5, will be disappointed if doesn't go close. Decent course form, well handicapped, Moore booked.

2.00 Goodwood - Sirona 5.00 - Best horse in race

2.35 Thirsk - Obelix 5.00 - Meets all trends needed

Bets 02/05/2025

So glad jumps is done. I keep jumping back into it, and I keep falling.

1.45 Newmarket - Unexposed bunch. No real clues. Alpine Trail  is fit and winning comfortably. Appleby has won this 4 times so if I did bet would only be in an acca. 5 horse race, don't like them but can make all so pace is not an issue.

2.20 Newmarket - Boring but Cosmic Year looks the one to beat so 3.46 double with Alpine Trail

2.55 Newmarket - Again boring but Spectacular View 3.95 the one to beat. The form with Fifth Column is solid. Appleby won this 3 times from 8 runners. I did wonder whether the other Appleby runner was better handicapped, but all 3 of his winners been faves. Omears poor record at the track and Walker first time gelding opp form no good.

3.30 Newmarket - Really want to back Alzahir but George Wood 0/22 here. Miss Information can't back due to Balding form, same for Physique, Local Hero and Jumby. Leave Fifty Nifty 3.45 who tbf should be a C&D winner

4.05 Newmarket - Another race with no value and Silver Knott's 2.66 to lose. 4 horse race though so anything can happen

4.45 Newmarket - Another fave really hard to get away from Rosy Affair 2.46

Not often hit 6 faves at the same track.... Will look at other races. Need a value injection...

1.25 Goodwood - Another fave :) Logi Bear 3.6 though I'm worried about stable form and draw. It's hard to ignore Hannon sprinters who are faves esp at Goodwood.

2.00 Goodwood - Noble Champion 3.95 looked decent at Lingfield. Big step down in class. St. James Entry

2.35 Goodwood - Tatterstall 6.6 to make all and win again as at Glorious Goodwood. Hopefully fit. Stable in decent enough form.

3.45 Goodwood  Waleefy 2.2

5.05 Musselburgh - Bern Rossetti 5.73 is interesting. Stable in form. Looked blocked the majority of the way at Beverley. If can get a run and can reproduce that might be able to turn the short fave over.

6.13 Newcastle - Had Polygram tracked but not keen to take on a Gosden hotpot. Polygram Top 2 2.08

7.55 Newcastle - Project Geofin 5.00. Solid C&D runner. Can win from this mark. A good break. Oldroyd comes good this time of year and had a 10/1 winner lto.

Bets 01/05/2025

 3.05 - A Law of Her Own 25/1ew, Beat Theatre Native who went on a romp a G3 handicap next race. Will try to make all with whichever else goes with it, and the fact can stay longer will help.

Bets 30/04/2025

 Didnt get to farm the cards properly. Was looking at Checkandchallnege 18s and unquestionable 11/2 in same race at ascot. also blue lord to make amends from lto at punchestown

Bets 25/04/2025

 Sandown 1.50 - A few look pretty exposed here. The Lost King ran in a decent enough listed race for the context of this race. I'd mark that run up given hanging a fair bit. Think will try to make the running with the Johnston horse who is technically 4lbs ahead of mark, but is 0/22 for runners at Sandown and not sure as much scope for improvement as The Lost King 8.0

Sandown 2.25 - Almaqam is best horse in the race and the likely winner but just wonder if Arabian Crown 7.4 offer more value. Solid C&D winner. Almaqam hasn't yet won at the distance, though not far off in G2. Either way toss up for me but going with the bigger odds

Sandown 3.00 - Can't split Lead Artist, Tamfana, Haatem and Alcantor. Maybe Lead Artist better over longer than a mile. Maybe Haatem given been off for a while might not be fit. Fabre doesn't send horses over for fun does he but maybe needs slower groun. Tamfana has a penalty but have been winners with a penalty and comes from a more traditional route of races into this one, so sod it going with Tamfana 7.8

Sandown 3.35 - The Hotzahell form is hot so backing Windlord 2.56

Sandown 4.45 - Moon Sniper 21.00 beat Windlord (above) in early days and been staying on in all previous races.

URGH

 Last £666 punted only returned £190. Across 39 bets that's one of the worst runs had in a while. This is why punting in the transition from jumps to flats is not a good idea.....Never learn :)

Be back soon

Bets 22/04/2025

 Taking a wee battering at the moment...

1.35 Epsom - Faustus 30.11. Can win of this mark and class. Good form at Brigthon usually translates here. Trainer 38%SR here also.

2.10 Epsom - Devils Advocate 2.44 looks decent. Trainer, jockey, stallion stats all fine. Some money for it AP on the Derby also a positive sign.

2.45 Epsom - Stressfree 4.3 If doesn't win this is being plotted for a big handicap. Busted a big acca for me last time out. Goes against some stats though.

3.20 Epsom - Dashinwhitesargent 8.8 - Stats point to this. Step up in trip looks an obvious next step. Quic ground looks important. Course winner. Miller Spirite was next on list

4.25 Epsom - Say Loco 43.52 - Stats okay. Dow won this twice before as a Epsom trainer knows what it takes. That form behind Pantile Warrior means could be on a decent mark on turf debut.

4.38 Yarmouth - Gorgeous Mr George 11.5 - Dylan says his best chance today. On paper I can't see it, but following blind.

2.50 Fairyhouse - Zenta 3.03 Following JP money

4.30 Fairyhouse - Don't Tell Jack 5.20 Following JP money

Bets 21/04/2025

Obvs now playing straight on the nose had 3 places yesterday :) 

2.05 - Arch Empire 9.66 - Elliot coming back to form. Ignore run in March. Elliot form was poor. Doctor Dinos all good on heavy. Got a very good claimer onboard.

2.40 - Wendrock 5.5 -As above Elliot coming back to form. Top rated

3.15 - Come Walk With Me 7.5 - Form with Honest Policy is solid.

3.50 - Spread Boss Ted 18.35 - Not worried about layoff given it's Mullins. The form of the Albert Barlett 24 is disgusting. G1 winners all over the place.

5.00 - Kinturk Kalanisi  11.5 - Well handicapped based on Navan run for a trainer won this twice before. Sa Majestic and Now is the Hour the fun tricast

4.50 Redcar - Ottoman 6.6 Can turn tables from better draw. Stable going well.

5.30 Redcar  - Hardlass 21.0 back on turf over 5f is tempting at this price

Bets 20/04/2025

 Thankfully Zarzyni did the job, making it level for the day on singles.

3.05 Bath - Toolatetonegotiate 4.96 Got to go close on paper

3.41 Bath - Frost at Dawn 9.6 - On best form this is this the best horse on quick ground over 5f. I'm assuming no rain...

1.22 Fairyhouse - Ben Solo 18.2 and Collaborative 12, both well handicapped

1.52 Fairyhouse - Miss Pronouncation 8.5 was rated much higher over hurdles. Produced a very good round at this distance on heavy at Fairyhouse. Improved again lto.

Bets 19/04/2025

 Was unlucky with a couple at Newcastle. Thankfully last at Lingfield meant wasn't a white wash. How that Heavenly horse won from 22lb out the handicap....

2.25 Muss - Gweedore 6.0 backed lto and done by a 'trainer couldn't explain improvement even though smashed into fave'

3.00 Muss - Cover Up 5.12 ahead of mark if reproduces here.

3.35 Muss - Wild Waves 5.12 if runs to form of Leger will bolt up.

5.17 Muss - Zarzyni 5.0 came from pretty much last to third full of running in half a furlong after being blocked the whole way. 

4.30 Fairy - Blue Mosque 16.54 - Could be well handicapped on basis of last run, especially as looks to be a big improver. Cruised into race couple furlongs out so think extra distance will help. Stable in good form. 

    

Bets 18/04/2025

Newcastle 1.50 - So Darn Hot 7/2. Hate backing faves in big handicaps, but solid course winner, proven in this class, won easy enough lto and claimer takes a chunk of the rise off. Draw fine. Trainer in form. Jockey won enough races here. I had backed Solider Start 16/1 (Antepost, but didn't make the cut, sob sob)

Newcastle 2.25 - Cloud Cover looks such an obvious pick here. Why did it have wind surgery I don't know. Romped lto and 3lb wouldn't stop him following up, but the surgery is bugging me. Cloud Cover is a hold up horse so has the risk traffic. At the flip of a coin odds, going to punt Callianassa 40/1ew. Last time out beaten by maybe a 97 horse by 11 lengths. Doing the maths gives it a rating of 77. Once wasn't going to win was 100% eased off. Previous race over C&D given a shite ride, too far back. The race before this was beaten quite easily in a c2 over C&D by Cloud Cover, but was 13lb out the handicap! Ellison banged in a winner today which is great news. Same jockey as went beaten by Cloud Cover. Let's pop off a decent ew.

Newcastle 3.00 - Valiant Force 7/1ew (Backed this 10/1 Antepost) (our 150/1 Norfolk winner) is a Group horse in a handicap. No idea if will take to the surface but clearly in thriving form. Willing to find out. Storm Star and Roi De France are both massive dangers, but let's hope they get merked by traffic and VF makes all to win to make it 2/3 at the track.

Newcastle 3.35 - Fivethousandtoone 13/2 (Backed this 8/1 Antepost) can win back to backs of this. Was with Balding last year, but Oisin is called back up. Probably should have won last two races and hopefully is bouncing around the same sort of form. Went into overdrive last year when got going. From the draw is always the risk of traffic being a hold up, but most of the pace looks high so something to aim at.

Newcastle 4.07 - Old Harrovian 7/2 (Backed 9/2 Antepost). Absolutely romped home lto and better at the weights than Glen Buck. Balding in rude form.

Newcastle 4.42 - Roaring Legend 3/1 - Likely still pounds in hand and Palmer think would have been competitive in the Dubai World Cup. Won easily over C&D, Probert on again

Lingfield 2.40 - Sterling Knight 12/1ew - Down in class with a decent run over C&D last time. Not sure why such a big price

Lingfield 3.15 - Silkie Wilkie 13/2ew. Was so disappointed with runs in Meydan. Owes me by getting to the front and making all. None from stall 1 - 3 should go forward, so now excuse Went close over C&D in c2 since.

Lingfield 4.50 - Vocal Legend 11/2ew. Well handicapped on formlines and what has shown so far. Hills going well enough.

Bets 17/04/2025

 2.25 Present Times 7/2 best handicapped on best form

3.00 - Noisy Jazz 12/1 and Mythical Guest 25/1. Brioini ws next on list but stick with two

3.35 - Anno Domino 2/1. Im following the Hotazhell formline. Think Hotazhell one I'll follow all season

4.10 - Fair Wind 5/1

5.20 - Camera Shy 9/1

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Added 11am

310 Ripon - Spring Corn 28/1ew

Bets 16/04/2025

3 winners yesterday in the end! Just 3 punts today. 

1.50 Newmarket 

1st  - The Dragon King 8/1 - 

Screwed the start lto, detached from field but still won. Can win off a mark like this. Decent C&D form. Last 2 years: Invincible Army 19%, Cox and Moore are 50% together. I remember Cox going close in this couple years ago with Harry Three.

2nd - Invictus Gold 10/1 - 

Ran a decent race at July course. Stepped up performance in a race which didn't pan out, so marking rating up. 

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3.35 Newmarket 

Amori City 11/2 -  

Improved every run from debut. Solid course experience. Appleby and Buick won this 3 times before together.

Bets 15/04/2025

 Newmarket have watered and it's going to be heavy rain. Hmmmm. Not sure how to play this as will make a massive difference. Let's see, but it's an easy excuse for me when everything gets merked

1.50 - Trefor has a big turn around at the weights with Elmonjed, so 10/1 is potentially big. Problem is Jason Waston is 0/24 at Newmarket. Love Woodhay Wonder over C&D but Im hoping too high in weights now. Vantheman 11/ew looks a likely improver with step back up in trip. Is rapid and won at 6f before. Just hope the rain doesn't slow down the ground too much.

2.25 - Green Storm 5/1ew nearly a G1 winner. Nearly G3 winner at the track. They all have to improve passed him. Ground I think less dependant but maybe softer better.

3.00 - Ottoman Fleet 6/4 to complete the hatrick. First conquest is a risk, but don't think showed any major improvement last 3 runs and will need to to beat OF.

3.35 - Nadra 7/2. Forgot to back this when was 7s yesterday. All stats point to this and was an extremely taking debut

4.10 - Harrys Girl 9/1e/w

4.45 - Victory Queen 6/4

5.20 - Treasure Fleet 11/8

Bets 13/04/2025

 Decent 20s and 10s yesterday.

Bets 12/04/2025

 Newbury 125 - G3 in which none of the runners have won at the distance other than Divina Grace 20s. 19/21 winners had won at this distance or more before winning this. If Sunway runs to Irish Derby form could be tough to beat, but the Bellum Justum looked very solid lto. I'd take this to improve past Sunway. Feigning Madness 33s annoying not   3 places, but feeling feisty today.

Beckett decent record in this race. Balding tried many times.

Newbury 2.00 - Simmering is the best horse in the race on previous. Better Times Ahead 7s is inexperienced, but looks rock solid and Beckett loves winning this race.

Newbury 2.35 - Rashabar is best horse in race, but Meehan's form stinks. Yah Mo Be There very interesting for me, but does have a lot to find on ratings. Rogue Alliance 8s comes with a lot of hype and Omeara won this last year

Newbury 3.12 - Silver Sword and Classic 8s look to have best chances

Newbury 3.54 - Sweet Reward 10s wins.

Gone with the longer odds horses ew. Also played Bellum Justum, Simmering, Rashabar an Silver Sword

Bets 11/04/2025

 

Bet 10/04/2025

Couple decent winners at Meydan and nearly two forecasts. Bit gutted didn't take a chance with Dubai Future nor stick with my AP of Ragging Torrent in the second race. Anyhow we move on.

Not expecting much in low class AW, but need to keep the practice going.

Newcastle 5.00 - Cardarn 4/1.

Newcastle 7.00 - Secret Guest 10/1ew

Newcastle 7.30 - Hidden Verse 14/1ew

Newcastle 8.00 - That's My Boy Luke 9/1ew

Bets 05/04/2025 - Dubai WC and Grand National !

Aintree - 

1.20 Aintree - Act of Authority 8/1ew, Shangah Bob 33/1ew 

1.55 Aintree - Lulamba Evs. Basically 19 length headstart at the weights ahead of next best rated horse

2.30 Aintree - Really struggled to make decision on this. Les Milos 11/1ew and Weveallbeencaught 11/ew

3.05 Aintree - Ground will hopefully be good. Top of market many do better with give in ground. Altobelli 25/1ew could love this. Looks an up and coming stayer. The Wallpark would have been the pick but Elliot still on the sidelines for me. Strong Leader 6/1ew

4.00 - Iroko 9/1ew. I'm all over Intense Raffles Antepost, just not sure the ground is suitable now. 

5.00 - L'Eau Du Sud 15/8 - Best rated

5.25 - Storming George 28/1ew Decent debut. Was hampered for like a furlong and finally bolted once clear. Mossy Fen Road 5/1

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Dubai - Buick could have a decent day.

2.10 - Trawlerman 4/1(2pt). Best horse in the race. I didn't back it last year as ran poorly the year before in it. Ran really well in it last year. Maybe should have one. Not sure why Shoemark didn't slam him home. Think got pulled up by stewards on it. I didn't back Dubai Future lto, even though said was best in race. The SBS form stank. Shat in lto on the bridle. I just don't know if will back it up. Al Nayyir also ran a strong race last year. Looks potentially better than last year, but Trawlerman looked good in breeze ups this week and if Buick rides him 20% better than KS did last year this is the one to beat. Double Major probably only other that worries me. I think Trawlerman, Al Nayyir, Double Major and Dubai Future fill the top 4.

2.45 - Peptide Nile 9/1ew(1pt ew). There's going to be some pace in this and this one will close on the pack at the line. I think is a classy G1 Jap horse and top of couple stats for me. I think if Mosafa 9/2(0.5pt) was with Seemar a bit longer would have this done and dusted. Beat the Breeders Cup Classic winner and broke the Gulfstream track record. 

3.20 - If Christophe wasn't riding Isivunguvungu I'd be taking the 25ew, but 0/25 at the track. I see this between Believing and Regional. Regional 8/1ew (1pt ew) has beaten Believing (0.5pt) before so let's assume stays that way. Can't work out the Howdeepisyourlove form, but either way think my picks are better rated at these conditions. I do wonder how Regional will get on with Win Carnelian who will try to blitz this.

4.00 - Looking at ratings, races times and previous videos, I quite like Admire Daytona 10/1ew (1ptew). For some reason was held up and came home very strongly. Christophe PL who usually rides it is back on today and knows how to win here and in fact this race. Given I liked the race times of the pick I'd be fuming if Don in The Mood 9/1ew(1ptew) won so also backing this. 

4.40 - Looks between Tuz and Straight No Chaser. Tuz got the inside line and no other real pace. Is this enough to win? Tuz had a long campaign. Not sure will bet yet. Reassess again in the morning.

5.15 - Be an upset if Romantic Warrior 4/7 loses this. No single. Will acca with others

5.50 - Global trotting super star Rebels Romance 4/1(2pt). Shin Emperor worries me with stall 1. Calandagan arguably the best here, but I think will get stuck too far back even from this draw

6.30 - Be an upset if Forever Young 4/7 loses this. No single. Will acca with others.

Bets 04/04/2025

 Well we knew he was 8/12 winners before coming here....

Bit annoying really as everything he has is now being overbet and value is questionable.

1.45 - Dancing City 7/1ew was going to be the play, but price is now 11/4. hmmm. No interest in Handstand. Cadwell Potter looks decent, but I just can't take on the Mullins bandwagon. Beaten at the Chelts festival before winning at Aintree last year. No reason can't do it again. QDB, the other Mullins horse, is being smashed in. Hmmm.

Dancing City 11/4

2.20 - Blenkisop is really well handicapped based on form prior to the Aintree festival last year. Stepped up massively lto and back to similar form. Daly in decent nick. Good place chance. Wellington Arch also well handicapped but Wade Out who won so easily lto could be a big step ahead of mark here. If I knew Hansard stayed would be main bet at 33s, though I guess is a big price as doesn't stay?! Hmm. Ike Sport at 70s will bounce back one day. Maybe at Sandown later this month.

Wade Out 8/1ew

Small cover on Wellington Arch and Blenkisop

2.55 - Romeo Coolio should win but no touching an Elliott horse until he landed a winner first. Don't see the point in taking on Salvator Mundi who can turn the tables. Did like Jet to Vegas. No Kelso 365 winner has won this in 13 attempts and not looking for a stat breaker

Salvator Mundi 3/1

3.30 - El Fabilio 3/1

4.05 - Blue Lord 7/1, Ginnys Destiny 14/1ew. Jetoile interesting ew

4.40 - Califet En VOl 4/1

5.15 - Celtic Dino 4/1. Small hedge on Jack Hyde and Country Park

Bets 03/04/2025

 Had planned to avoid Aintree. ROFL. Probably be a waste of time and should be focussing on Meydan....

Playing cautious ews I think. 

1.45 - Croke Park 11/2ew. Elliot form a bit of a doubt, but it's certainly getting there. Last 12 all 147+OR, 4 or 5 previous starts and didn't win lto in pattern handicap. Only Croke Park fits this. Walk In The Park solid stats and Elliot shorter price runners do really well. 

Impaire Et Passe been hammered in the market but Croke Park beat this by 5 lengths lto. Mullins though is 8 wins from last 12 runners. Hmmm

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2.20 - Only looking at the Fred Winter form here. The question is will either Murcia (13lb pull) or Wendrock (6lb pull) turn the tables on Putyourhandstogether? The winner romped, so hard to know how much more improvement. Urgh. Hate backing jumps favourites so backing Murcia with a 13lb pull

Murcia 5/1ew

Small hedge fc Puthands, Murcia (5/1)

Small fun tc Puthands, Murcia, Wendrock (35s) and Murcia, Puthands, Wendrock (64s)

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2.25 - Spillanes Tower all the rage in the betting. Going for the horse that has form of PU, PU, F. Ahoy Senor loves Spring and loves Aintree.

Ahoy Senor 8/1ew

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At this point Im putting on a Impaire Et Passe, Putyourhandstogether, Spillanes Tower Treble (20/1)

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3.30 - No bet. Flip a coin between Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth I say

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4.05 - Famous Clermont 15/2ew winner of this two years ago. Milan Forth looks to be one to keep an eye on in future if keeps improving as is. Small hedge on Lifetime Ambition probably biggest threat

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4.40 - Rath Gaul Hill 8/1ew. Could back loads of these. Put small hedge on Primoz

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5.15 - Charisma Cat 6/1ew

Bets 01/04/2025

Lingfield 2.02 - Charlie Mason 4/1

Lingfield 3.02 - Zariela 7/2

Lingfield 3.38 - Upepo 3/1

Lingfield 4.48 - Urban Sprawl 5/2

Lingfield 5.20 - Coolagh Magic 11/1 (Needs to break clean)

Played a place acca today instead of win acca. Interesting...

Bets 31/03/2025

 Decent from Dark Thirty. Thought was going to get screwed on the line again. Did get screwed with Stressfree though. Was a solid double with Dark Thirty foiled. Good Lincoln meeting. Best in many years.

Wolves 4.55 - If Banana runs to form of last race is well handicapped. Only looked at cards this morning. 20/1ew last night would have been decent value. Into 9/1. Still think has best chance. Jockey has best SR in field (27%). From Stall 1, if breaks well can make all.

Banana 9/1ew

Wolves 6.00 - Willing to take on market leaders. Cosmos Nights 10s , Ciotog 17s, Harlem Night 16s on the exchanges all have chances. Will split stakes with the first two. 

Cosmos Night 10s

Ciotog 17s

6.30 Wolves - Mr. Baloo can go in again. Hannon is spanking form and won this race before

Mr Baloo 2/1

7.00 Wolves - 

Antelope 6/1ew

7.30 Wolves - 

Kanghai 6/1

8.00 Wolves - 

Big Narstie 7/2

8.30 Wolves - 

Sir Lawerence Graff 3/1

Bet 30/03/2025

Two decent winners, but man Iberian and The Cursor both should have won for a cracking day. Over thought the handicaps.

3.40 - Trilby 16/1ew, Dark Thirty 11/1ew

4.15 - Stressfree 6/1. Crimson Road not the worst 33s you'll see

Too tired for any more.

Bets 29/03/2025

Doncaster

1.15 - Ahead of Fashion 66s, Archibald Ives 10s , Justice Twice 25s  from trainers who do well with 2year old at Doncaster with decent prices, but in big races like this where a Hannon horse opens fave I'm happy to blindly back it, especially as this one with Amo and the ped is strong. Keen to see how Lope Harswell runs. First runner from Lope Y Fernandez. Was 66/1 when opened. Had some coins on it.

Norman's Cay 11/4

1.50 - Tough one. No strong opinions either. Look Back Smiling could win b2b renewals but looking at stablemate One Night Thunder, if this bounces back to form, is going to be chucked in. Money come from 66s into 22s already, so is this a bullish sign? The better the ground, the better the chances for sure.  I think there will be a lot of pace down the middle and looking for one that has that extra distance form. Looking back at most winners they all had a go over longer. Bit of a dart but Deborah's Dream maybe the one that makes all and holds on. Again the better the ground the better then chance. I thought about Promethean but drawn 22 (1 in 27 wins)

One Night Thunder 22/1ew

Deborahs Dream 25/1ew

2.25 - I really want to back Spycatcher. On best form this one wins. 7 years old though and Burke form in pattern class at Doncaster not too appealing. So, looking for a 4 year old who still improving. Potentially it's James Delight but plumping for Iberian. Wind Op looks to have worked a treat and solid course winner

Iberian 13/2

3.00 - I thought about Checkandchallenge. If the ground was Good, I'd have gone in. Tough to split the top in market, but Dancing Gemini is taking step down in class. 2nd in French Guineas. Think ground will still have soft in it. Teal back in the winners enclosure yesterday.

Dancing Gemini 7/2

3.35 - Easy to get carried away with this race. I backed Thunder Run AP, but looking at trends, shrunk the list to Godwinson,  Native Warrior, Alpha Crucis, Dashing Darcey, Old Cock. Olivers is 6lb well in so on paper big chance. Native Warrior looked progressive last year and willing to ignore last race. Wootton Bassetts all good at Donny (4/13 in 4yr+ handicaps).

Native Warrior 10/1ew

4.10 - The Cursor 10/1ew

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Curragh

2.15 - Go Athletico 20/1ew. If recaptures previous form back at former stable can outrun odds for a place minimum.

Bets 28/03/2025

 Lingfield 4.32 - Commendation 8/1. Got two front runners today to make the pace.

Bets 26/03/2025

720/1 Treble yesterday. Happy days. Albeit 50p lines for fun.

6.00 Kempton - Standput 11/1ew 2

6.30 Kempton - Macedonian 5/1 2

7.00 Kempton - Roi De France 5/2 2

7.30 Kempton - Sweet Fantastic 7/2 3

8.00 Kempton - Collision 5/1 2

8.30 Kempton - Golden Flame 17/2 3

Bets 25/03/2025

 Chelts was a disaster. Meydan last few weeks not great either. Glad to see Hurricane Ivor bolt up at 20/1 at the weekend after following off cliff last year. FFS :)

4.43 Newcastle - Ana Emaraty 5/2.

Facts

Trainer Current SR: 63% (1st)

Trainer Course SR: 12% (2nd)

Jockey Current SR: 30% (2nd)

Jockey Course SR: 15% (1st)

Horse Course Form: 19% (2nd). 

All horse wins with jockey booked.

Subjective

Horse Handicap: 3lb well in

Horse Current Form: Won lto easily, only up 2lb

5.15 Newcastle - Eva Rosie / Violeta Rfc 40/1

Can't split them on current mark so go for the fun bet

6.45 Newcastle - Coramento 22/1ew

The 7lb claim has to do the trick. If it does can outrun 20s+

7.15 Newcastle - Pastoral Way 5/1

7.45 Newcastle - Henry Hawk 7/1

Bets 14/03/2025

 Chelts a waste of my life and money, but we have Meydan today!

1.20 - Lady Vega Allen 16/1

2.00 - Valgrand 8/1

2.40 - Dinoblue 6/5

3.20 - Jet Blue 8/1

4.00 - GDC

4.40 - Shearer 11/1

5.20 - Taponthego 10/1 (As its last race chuck two more darts Electric Mason 33/1, Tounsivator 50/1)

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2.05 - Al Arbed 7/2, Shuf Dubai 10/1

2.50 - Story of Light 16/1

3.25 - Alsayef 5/1

4.00 - Wesall 12/1, Rebaatt 20/1

4.35 - Lafthty 6/1

Bets 13/03/2025

 Yesterday reminded me, again, of why stopped punting on the jumps. No idea anymore. 

Punts made poolside with pina colodas. Not watching any of it 😅

1.20 Galileo Dame

2.00 Nurburgring

2.40 Bugise Seagull

3.20 Protektorat

4.00 lucky place

4.40 Jagwar

5.20 midnightbour fred

Bets 12/03/2025

Majborough blundered a win. Kool One was travelling okay till fell, Static outran 50s but lost out on places by 1 and Con Hill fell. One of those days, just glad the last won at 4s

1.20 - Final Demand 7/4

2.00 - Ballyburn 5/6

2.40 - Sandor Clegane 16/1, Might I 40/1

3.20 - The Goffer 20/1, Coko Beach 25/1

4.00 - Win £9k if Captain Guinness manages to wins this, but Solness 9/1ew appeals today.

4.40 - JPR One 12/1, Third Time Lucky 20/1

5.20 - Kalypso'Chance 11/2

Bets 11/03/2025

1.20 - Kopek Des Bordes Evs

2.00 - Majborough 4/7

I'm going to do a small double (1.20 Romeo Coolio / 2.00 L'eau Du Sud Top 2 Double)

2.40  Changing Man 7/1, The Short Go 12/1

3.20 - Majbourgh 4/7, cover with July Flower 11/1

4.00 - Constitution Hill 4/7

4.40 - Static 50/1ew, Kool One 50/1ew

5.20 - Haiti Colours 5/1, Gericault Roque 12/1

Bets 07/03/2025

Shocker at Meydan last week. In Sri Lanka for 3 weeks, so let's see how get on with punting.

2.50 Meydan - Sense of Wisdom 4/1 been ready to win last two runs. Just needs a clear run. Tadhg up this time to help steer home

4.00 Meydan - Mysterious Night 8/11 is short but should be winning this.

4.35 Meydan - Al Arbed 6/1ew, if can stay close to leaders has a chance up in trip.

5.10 Meydan - Backed Laneqash 16/1 and Padishakh 20/1 last time out. Back to 1m could suit. I think they are both well handicapped enough to go close on their day

6.00 Dundalk - Happy For Evva 14/1ew well handicapped over C&D. It's Dundalk though...

Bets 21/02/2025

Didn't get a chance to post last week as was at a conference but a cheeky 66/1ew with Al Salt was nice, although I backed it at 16s and was not BOG!

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1.30 - None of these are in particularly good form, nor really well handicapped on paper. If ignored current form, Condor Pasa, Maplewood and Mythical Dancer are of interest. The first two are similar in that ran decent races on last two turf starts but stinkers on dirt since then. Not sure how much more improvement could be from Maplewood, but perhaps Tudhope can eek out some. Condor Pasa is well handicapped on C&D form and now Nass is coming back to form could be interesting. Mythical Dancer is being brought back slowly by Seemar after chunks of time off the track, but put best forward and could win by a few. All 3 are risky :) 

Will back both Maplewood 15/2 and Condor Pasa 13/2. Split Stakes. Otn

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2.05 - Likely between the top 2 here, but Faal Khair, we know stays, and has come here instead of the Saudi Derby. Seems to be bit of money for it. Nothing other than this and Royal Favour seeing support at time of writing. Faal Khair 16/1ew

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2.40 - Two horses who run in the UK interest me most. Silver Sword and Padishakh. Silver Sword is really well handicapped on best form but not shown improvement out here and whilst best runs were on fast ground winning at York and Pontefract are not the same as winning at Meydan? Is it? Padishakh made up a lot of ground from the back lto. The race time was quick. If can build upon that race and doesn't get as far back I think Danny can get this home. Loves the fast ground. Emperor's Star is the obvious danger. Was trapped for a fair bit before getting out in the clear but did have his chance to win. Prefer Padishakh 16/1ew over 2/1 for the fave. Small rfc for banter.

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3.15 - Queen Azteca Evs. Can't see anything else winning this, but many unexposed here and up in trip, so nothing to go heavy on.

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3.50 - 5 horse race with a 4/11 fave. No thanks

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4.25 - Thought Book Review was going to hold on for a 40/1 win couple weeks back, but alas. From stall 10 could still get to the front but think stalls 8 & 9 will also try. Be annoyed if wins but leaving it today. Aldhaja won over C& from same stall in Dec with same jock. Stable still winning races. Up 5lb but doesn't look an overly competitive race, that said want to take a gamble on Al Maroom staying 10f. If stays can go really close. If was over 8f I'd be backing this. Such a crap race shouldn't be betting, but splitting stakes across Al Maroom 14/1 and Aldhaja 15/2

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5.00 - Don't think there's much improvement / if any with any of this lot other than Keffaaf, so for me it's about who turns up and runs best and what's the value. If Dubai Future turns up, wins, but not back an SBS horse in a long time. Goya Senora ran okay behind Keffaf but then ran badly lto. Caius wants slower ground. Can't back KoC to break Meydan curse, so leaves Keffaf and Onesmoothoperator. The latter was poor lto, but actually ran lame. Reunited with Connor who is riding well atm and won the northumberland plate on onesmoothoperator. Could be the reason for a poor show was the lame right leg? Let's take a punt on it. Onesmoothoperator 9/1ew

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5.35 - Pipes and Dreams fluffed the start last time and recovered to be second in the home straight still travelling well. Didn't stay. Has a low draw, so if can break cleanly can make all. Klimt Street dropped in trip for the first time I thought ran really well. Has run some decent races here over 7f, so if can apply more speed with a good claim will outrun odds. Pipes and Dreams 10/1ew and Klimt Street 28/1ew

Bets 07/02/2025

1.30 - Tafreej 20/1ew. Can't make a strong case for any of these. Hopefully Crowley got some confidence back after winning lto. Tafreej can make a suggestion has been unlucky in running last two turf runs. Didn't take to dirt and form before that was decent in the context of running from 85 today. Draw not great but is a hold up horse so can get a wide position to come from the back cleanly or will require a lot of luck in running.

2.40 - Symbol of Honour will put into an acca with Arabian Light in the 3.50. Top rated. Can't find anything on paper that might improve passed it. Form is rock solid.

3.50 - Silent Defence 50/1ew. Has been running really well in defeat. Might have been 9 lenghts of first conquest but it doesn't tell the story at all. Couldn't get out of traffic. Last off the bridle. Made headway and then hampered and pretty much pulled up. Ran well enough over 6f. Back to 9f it's s decent ew.

Sean 22/1ew been following closely and if money for it will have a dabble.

4.25 - Thunder of Niagara 8/1ew looks back to near his best. Tawalla is a decent marker for handicap at the moment and actually ties in with Silent Defence form above. Will need to be kept close the pace. 

Silkie Wilkie 28/1ew. Was really keen on this couple races back. If this shortens across the board will have a dabble. Is deffo well handicapped but ran two horrific races out here so had to play it.

5.00 - First Constitution 22/1ew will try to make all here. Was running in G1 over C&D couple years back. Blinkers back on, and ran a much improved race lto. If can step up again from that will have a decent chance.

Book Review 28/1ew always wins one a season. Not sure if will back it yet. Again will watch for some cash confidence. WIll try to make all with FC. Been running poorly of late and no sign of perking up, but last year wasn't either and pooped in a 20/1 win

5.35 - Assail 16/1ew will be one to watch. Looks progressive. If fit can win this.

Intricacy 40/1ew shouldn't be 40/1ew. If gets a decent pace and clear run can place at least.

Bets 31/01/2025

Actually turned out okay on the ews last week. Probably a faves day

R1 13.30 - Tough race with no stand outs. Backed Fall of Rome 11/1ew last time. Got a good break and tried to make it from the front as I expected and just started to hand under pressure, but held out for the place. Drop in trip to a distance has won at before and willing to punt at this price. Not much else can make a case for other than Mayaadeen, but Watson is 0/16 atm.

R2 2.05 - Can't see passed Mountain Breeze on paper, but not at 4/9 for me. Pocket Phone is probably overpriced at 100s but I'm just leaving this race. MB into an acca.

R3 2.40 - Estmar Evs wins on paper, with Undefeated big danger

R4 3.15 - These prices are not fun for me but again Romantic Style should win on paper. That said I'll take this on with Emaraty Ana 8/1ew Sure getting older now, but actually ran pretty well last week. Got too far behind and stormed home in similar times to the impressive West Acre. If doesn't get too far back might, just might upset RS. Haasim is a big price. Will think about it.

R5 3.50 - Another average handicap and again hard to make a case for much. If Magic Petition 14/1ew runs to the same level as two races ago will go close. Gamekeeper and MP will both try to win it from the front from their lows draws, so is a risk set it up for something else, but can't work out what. I like Welcome Dream but again, with Watson form can't do it. Could be Gamekeeper and Magic Petition 1-2 if no one catches them

R6 4.25 - First Conquest was mighty impressive time out, but willing to punt See Hector 13/2ew to turn the tables with a 7lb pull. Asassi looks like a weapon so a fun combi tricast with First Conquest, Asaasi and See Hector

R7 5.00 - Guns and Glory 2/1 just needs to win today. Can't have any excuses today. Tacitcal Bound has produced the best historic form but hasn't produced anything since was lame few races back

R8 5.35 - Al Qudra should beat Hallasan but I maybe might back the forecast or back Hallasan 3/1 at the price to come flying home late. TBC. Out of time to think.

Bets 24/01/2025

Decent last two weeks in meydan. Card looks amazing today, but not my cup of tea. No handicaps :( 

I'm playing small stakes looking for ew plays incase the obvious faves don't deliver but I shouldn't really play today :)

G2 Al Fahidi Fort - Make Me King 10/1ew

G3 Firebreak - Cagliostro 12/1ew

G2 Blue Point Sprint - Logo Hunter 33/1ew

G1 Al Maktoum Challenge - Imperial Emperor 7/1ew

G1 Jebel Hatta - Holloway Boy 22/1ew

G3 Al Shindagha Sprint - Colour Up 14/1ew

G3 Al Khail Trophy - Goya Senora 12/1ew