Bets 16/12/2013

A decent enough weekend. The only daft thing was betting on 5 horses in the big handicap. I thought Sew on Target was going to do something for me, but did not last after front running. The New One looks decent but not sure how to assess with Hurricane Fly yet. More of That looks decent and Kings Palace who was the obvious lump job looks like a potential banker for the festival as does Briar Hill.

I was happy I managed to only bet in a few races on Saturday. I will try to keep doing the same. Also, I thought I would stop lumping, but I don’t think I will. I’ll just change tactics and use Betfair. Going to back big and lay off at around 1.2/1.3. I’m happy to hedge because 4 of 5 lumps that I’ve lost this year all traded really short before coming 2nd, so will give it a whirl….

Plumpton 1.15 – Everyone is tipping Knock House 7/4. I’m not convinced is a banker but will go with it. He can have a score of my money but that’s it and if that Hendo horse gets act together looks dangerous alongside Sky Watch.

A fair few interesting looking favourites, but the rain makes it hard to assess how deep it's going to get, so leaving alone

Total Staked £20.00, Total Returned £50.00

£20.00 Knock House  2/1 - WIN £50.00 HA - Tipsters got it right today, but the Hendo horse was a NR so may have been different.

Bets 14/12/2013

Chelts 12.10 – Geraghty reckons Kentucky Hyden 7/4 is very very good, although Nicholls thinks Vicenzo Mio is very good. Hmm

Chelts 12.40 – Rematch between Le Bec, Shutthefrontdoor and Sam Winner, but it’s a four horse race so I’m not getting involved.

Chelts 1.15 – I like Eastlake 13/2. Clearly Hendo wants to win this, but can’t work out which one has the best chance.

Chelts 1.50 – On paper looks like a walk in the park for Kings Palace 11/8. The horse he beat by 18lenghts won a G2 here last month. Surely a LUMP?

Chelts 2.25 – It’s not Segal this week but Pricewise has gone with Color Squadron 6/1 and Salut Flo 14/1. Agree with both. Cantlow, Easter Meteor and Grandioso meet again and at the weights Grandioso 15/2 has a chance. If there are two long shots to target then Sew On Target 16/1 has to be that. He is only 4 pounds higher when Johns Spirit beat him 4.5 lengths whereas JS is 19pounds higher. Yes you have to take into account improvement but who is to say Sew on Target can’t improve a handful? Lastly with Hobbs going so well and Gauvain 40/1 returning to chasing his Chelts form is worth chancing for a place!

Chelts 3.00 – Everyone is saying The New One even Nicholls is suggesting it, so the only logical value bet is the straight forecast as nothing else is in this league, but even that is probably not worth it as imagine everyone will be on it.

Doncaster 3.15 – Harry The Viking 11/2 can bounce back over a track he likes and ground he needs

Chelts 3.35 – Another 4 horse race – no interest in betting as tactics are important as we simply can’t mind read.

Total Staked £1,402.50, Total Returned £2,205.86

£30.00 Kentucky Hyden  6/4 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Salut Flo (Segal) 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Eastlake  13/2 - WIN £225.00

£55.00 e/w Accs  Accs - PLACED £96.60

£48.75 e/w Accs  Accs - LOSE £0.00

£855.00 Kings Palace (Backed then Laid)  6/5 - WIN £1734.26

£15.00 e/w Gauvain  40/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Grandioso (Segal) 9/1 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Colour Squadron  6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Sew on Target  16/1 - LOSE £0.00

£100.00 The New One  1/2 - WIN £150.00

£30.00 Harry The Viking  5/1 - LOSE £0.00

Worth the LUMP...

Bets 13/12/2013

I was lucky to make profits yesterday and I’ll explain how, but it went badly wrong for two reasons:

Firstly I listened to all the pundits about Module and went against the obvious class in Riverside. He had 12lb in hand over Module on ratings and guess what he beat him by 10lenghts... Thankfully put 5 times more on RS than module closer to the off.

Secondly, I looked at trainer form and results of trainers at tracks then tried to find reasons that horse would win. Stupid. Out of desperation I tried to find a better way of punting. No need. I watched the first race on RUK and the commentator suggested backing Rule of Thumb because of some race at Kempton April. Low and behold it was pretty much on the bridle 95% of the way round and won with ease. He gave his reasons and it reemphasises important of video study and knowing your form. So that helped me win a good amount

Anyway back to today, Tom Pricewise Segal from the RacingPost has picked two today:

2.10 Chelts - Prince of Pirates 7/1

3.15 Chelts - Abruzzi 16/1

I heart Chelts...

Bangor 12.10 – Ahyaknowyourself  3/1 was the best hurdler so will risk it.

Chelts 12.30 – Wonderful Charm has been impressive, but giving 8lb to Oscar Whiskey Evs might be hard especially as WC’s only go at Chelts was a bit disappointing.

Chelts 1.40 – Seriously tough this one. Impossible to know whether Skyfarmer is well treated. Will take a risk looking at RP ratings and fact not run at Chelts to say cross of list. Uhlan Bute looked to have a pretty hard race last week and not run at Chelts, so even though on a decent mark can’t back him. Zafranagar should not beat Canadian Diamond at the weights this time as 9lb better off. Lyvius who went chasing now back to hurdles won a Listed handicap of this rating last year so has to be there but I think might prefer soft ground. Dresden was in contention for most of the race last time over C&D and not sure whether the hill beat him or just got tired. The trainer quietly fancies him at a big price, but that day Maxi Chop was travelling much better than him and the form of that race is hot so MC over Dresden. I going Maxi Chop 7/2 and Canadian Diamond 12/1

Chelts 2.10 – All the pundits are once again on one horse. This time is Prince of Pirates. I will of course back it as is Pricewise, but I’m not convinced. Hendo says “He’s interesting” – can read jack all from that. Theatre Guide is the obvious one after the Henessey but had a tough race. Burton Port should not be handicapping at this weight. Pigeon Island has come into form again in class2 and we know he likes to win at Chelts, but step back up in grade surely too much to ask. Aimigayle was a decent 2^nd in the Byrne couple years ago, but never convinced about horses who switched between jumps disciplines. Duke of Lucca is not bad but held on form with Quentin Collonges and so it’s the Murphy Group handicap form we need to look at – Monbeg Dude, Knockara Beau and QC. I just get a slight niggling feeling that QC struggles up the hill so will go with KB 9/1 and MD 8/1

Chelts 2.40 – At the weights Any Currency 9/2 has a massive chance.

Chelts 3.15 – I don’t get why Sunnyhillboy is hurdling, unless its to lower his chase mark. Actually not sure that’s possible, but either way cant see him winning today. Thomas Crapper and Angles Hill both solid Chelts horses but can they step up in trip and class? Destroyer Deployed might be an interesting outsider here, but think the ground is too quick for him. So, we end up with that painful race where Return Springs booned my two Nicholls horses on the line last time out. I’m taking Southfield Theatre 4/1 to avenge defeat

Total Staked: £465.00, Total Returned: 372.41

£30.00 Ahyaknowyerself  100/3 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Oscar Whisky  5/6 - WIN £55.00

£80.00 Oscar Whisky  11/4 - WIN £176.00

£15.00 Captain Diamond  12/1 - PLACED £0.00

£15.00 Maxi Chop  7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 Knockara Beau  9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 Monbeg Dude  8/1 - WIN £123.00

£30.00 Any Currency  9/2 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Southfield Theatre  3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Garde La Victoire  7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£62.50 e/w Accs  Accs - PLACED £18.41

£20.00 Prince of Pirates (Segal) 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Abruzzi (Segal) 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Accs (Segal) Accs - LOSE £0.00

Bets 12/12/2013

Huntingdon 12.30 – Zafaraban 15/2 runs with potential and then runs like he needs a kick on off on off. Very frustrating I imagine. A stronger handler onboard today and first time cheekpieces might do the trick today!

Huntingdon 1.00 – Be a shocker if Une Artiste 1/2 lost this. I knew not to back him last time out, but the weights all in his favour today

Huntingdon 1.30 – I feel a good day coming on for Hendo. Karazhan 7/1 looks a solid horse. Bags of speed and a solid jumper. Top weight might be tough, but he;’s entered in the Ladbrokes Hurdle later this year so must be well thought of

Huntingdon 2.00 – Pretty decent race today. At the weights I’d be shocked if Captain Chris pulled this out the bag. The obvious one is clearly Riverside Theatre on OR and weights but he has just been poor last few races. Problem is when fresh he has won all but once and has bags of speed and on a quick track like Huntingdon has no excuses today. But as I am doing so poorly at the moment I’ve bought into all the tipsters choice (including Tom Pricewise Segal) of Module 4/1. His form is best on offer currently and the stats say he is improving. I’ve used my free loyalty bet on the RT/Module F/c 12/1 so I don’t kick myself about following the herd as I think Riverside T who is 12lb better off than Module looks better and sure can find a few excuses for previous run with were not suitable conditions…

Huntingdon 2.30 – Time to be a bit mad. On form Balinderry 18/1 has nothing. On pedigree has a lot more and has had McCoy onboard previously so clearly well thought of. Trainer is in decent form so if chasing over longer trip is the answer then 18/1 might be silly.

Huntingdon 3.00 – Namibian! Blast from the past! What is he doing here? Had massive colic issues I think and although a class apart surely cant back him in different sphere after so long off! Instead the mare Truckers Darling 25/1 has a 7lb allowance and might be worth changing. Ran a decent race last time in a similar quality race last time and on RPR must have a better chance than this with the pull.

Hong Kong 2013

Hong Kong Vase – Looks like you want to avoid high draws on this, and by far the best in The Fugue 6/5.

Hong Kong Sprint – Lord Kanaloa looks the bees knees. There is a lot of emphasise on the draw but I’m willing to ignore at my own peril. Lucky Nine will take advantage if draw is that mega.

Honk Kong Mile – Sky Lantern for the emotion

Hong Kong Cup – Nothing random - Military Attack

Bets 07/12/2013

Out all weekend so no major punting. Pricewise Segal has gone for:

2.05 Aintree - Rose of The Moon 33/1, Storm Survivor 25/1
2.25 Sandown - Milord 12/1, Whitby Jack 16/1
3.15 Aintree - Stormin Exit 16/1

No time to look at anything else which is a shame as card looks pretty fun!

Bets 05/12/2013

I've had a poor couple of months and a couple of wipeout days so have taken punting slowly. Jsut a few today.

2.40 Wincanton – Roman Flight 2/1

3.40 Meydan - Skycruiser 6/1

4.15 Meydan – Innocuous 3/1, Hajoum 20/1