Bets 13/12/2013

I was lucky to make profits yesterday and I’ll explain how, but it went badly wrong for two reasons:

Firstly I listened to all the pundits about Module and went against the obvious class in Riverside. He had 12lb in hand over Module on ratings and guess what he beat him by 10lenghts... Thankfully put 5 times more on RS than module closer to the off.

Secondly, I looked at trainer form and results of trainers at tracks then tried to find reasons that horse would win. Stupid. Out of desperation I tried to find a better way of punting. No need. I watched the first race on RUK and the commentator suggested backing Rule of Thumb because of some race at Kempton April. Low and behold it was pretty much on the bridle 95% of the way round and won with ease. He gave his reasons and it reemphasises important of video study and knowing your form. So that helped me win a good amount

Anyway back to today, Tom Pricewise Segal from the RacingPost has picked two today:

2.10 Chelts - Prince of Pirates 7/1

3.15 Chelts - Abruzzi 16/1

I heart Chelts...

Bangor 12.10 – Ahyaknowyourself  3/1 was the best hurdler so will risk it.

Chelts 12.30 – Wonderful Charm has been impressive, but giving 8lb to Oscar Whiskey Evs might be hard especially as WC’s only go at Chelts was a bit disappointing.

Chelts 1.40 – Seriously tough this one. Impossible to know whether Skyfarmer is well treated. Will take a risk looking at RP ratings and fact not run at Chelts to say cross of list. Uhlan Bute looked to have a pretty hard race last week and not run at Chelts, so even though on a decent mark can’t back him. Zafranagar should not beat Canadian Diamond at the weights this time as 9lb better off. Lyvius who went chasing now back to hurdles won a Listed handicap of this rating last year so has to be there but I think might prefer soft ground. Dresden was in contention for most of the race last time over C&D and not sure whether the hill beat him or just got tired. The trainer quietly fancies him at a big price, but that day Maxi Chop was travelling much better than him and the form of that race is hot so MC over Dresden. I going Maxi Chop 7/2 and Canadian Diamond 12/1

Chelts 2.10 – All the pundits are once again on one horse. This time is Prince of Pirates. I will of course back it as is Pricewise, but I’m not convinced. Hendo says “He’s interesting” – can read jack all from that. Theatre Guide is the obvious one after the Henessey but had a tough race. Burton Port should not be handicapping at this weight. Pigeon Island has come into form again in class2 and we know he likes to win at Chelts, but step back up in grade surely too much to ask. Aimigayle was a decent 2^nd in the Byrne couple years ago, but never convinced about horses who switched between jumps disciplines. Duke of Lucca is not bad but held on form with Quentin Collonges and so it’s the Murphy Group handicap form we need to look at – Monbeg Dude, Knockara Beau and QC. I just get a slight niggling feeling that QC struggles up the hill so will go with KB 9/1 and MD 8/1

Chelts 2.40 – At the weights Any Currency 9/2 has a massive chance.

Chelts 3.15 – I don’t get why Sunnyhillboy is hurdling, unless its to lower his chase mark. Actually not sure that’s possible, but either way cant see him winning today. Thomas Crapper and Angles Hill both solid Chelts horses but can they step up in trip and class? Destroyer Deployed might be an interesting outsider here, but think the ground is too quick for him. So, we end up with that painful race where Return Springs booned my two Nicholls horses on the line last time out. I’m taking Southfield Theatre 4/1 to avenge defeat

Total Staked: £465.00, Total Returned: 372.41

£30.00 Ahyaknowyerself  100/3 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Oscar Whisky  5/6 - WIN £55.00

£80.00 Oscar Whisky  11/4 - WIN £176.00

£15.00 Captain Diamond  12/1 - PLACED £0.00

£15.00 Maxi Chop  7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 Knockara Beau  9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 Monbeg Dude  8/1 - WIN £123.00

£30.00 Any Currency  9/2 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Southfield Theatre  3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Garde La Victoire  7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£62.50 e/w Accs  Accs - PLACED £18.41

£20.00 Prince of Pirates (Segal) 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Abruzzi (Segal) 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Accs (Segal) Accs - LOSE £0.00