Bets 16/11/2013

An 8/1 Segal winner and a 12/1 forecast = a good day yesterday. Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for only a few today:

Chelt 1.35 – Alvarado 20/1 and Bradley 8/1

Chelts 3.00 – Southfield Theatre 8/1

Uber competitive today, but just focus on course specialists…

12.40 Chelts – Royal Irish Hussar destroyed a listed field last time out, but Nicholls has beaten many a Hendo favourite in this race and Art Mauresque 9/2 can do the same today. Hard to assess the form but the prize money is an indication.

1.00 Punchestown – Difficult to avoid wandering towards Champagne Fever 8/13. Ignore Punchestown Festival as had a hard race at Chelts and can win on chase debut. Has the class.

1.15 Chelts – Tough. On paper Bobs Ford close to AFC, but actually he was thumped and similar story for African Gold. I’ll go for Shutthfrontdoor 11/4 who I’ve backed a few times and also ran a blinder at the festival and the time of that race was about 40secs quicker although ground was much softer for AG.

1.50 Chelts – Not convinced Goulnes is well handicapped. I never seem to get Pipe horses right. Rather annoying. Bradley 8/1 reopposes with Tour Des Champs with 2lb less and the extra distance will suit the former. The only other one who worries me might be Burton Port as lets not forget he was second in the Henessey Gold Cup on only 1lb lower couple years back. If Bradley does win then then form is good and I expect Tour Des Champs to follow home. The forecast pays 40/1 both ways.

2.30 Chelts – A number of AP bets already which is daft, but too late to change! Ballynagour 12/1 (one of the festival banker flops, but potentially still well in and might be better for rest), John’s Spirit 12/1(Easy C&D winner last time) and Colour Squadron 12/1 (had so much potential but had a poor rest of season, but as a result is on a low mark). Everyone is banging on about Chamption Court and I can’t back another now at the top of the market can I? Argh. The only other one I think is a mental price using John’s Spirit as a marker is Woolcombe Folly 40/1. Would have been much closer the JS is didn’t blunder close to home and not meets JS 10lb better off.

3.00 Chelts – Sliver Eagles form was franked by Thomas Crapper but this a Listed race. Impossible for me to know how well handicapped Southfield Theatre is, but trust in Segal. Salubrious romped the Martin Pipe at  the festival but Nicholls reckons will struggle at top weight. If Recession Proof 16/1 stays the trip he could be very very well handicapped and Cross Kennon 16/1 will no doubt have been primed for another crack in this. His prep this year was much better than his prep last year!

Away from the jumps a double on Hoodna 5/1 (3.10 Lingfield) and Nice Life Evs (7.50 Wolves)