Tom Pricewise Segal from the RacingPost has has one bet today:
Doncaster 3.05 - Valbchek 8/1
My thoughts in my early lunch break...
1.40pm...Later than planned lunch break...
Doncaster 2.00 – Red Avenger really demolished a class 5
race and 3rd who was 6 lengths behind went on to win. I’m not
convinced though on the basis of the times. Very slow races considering on
decent ground. The two that interest me are Regal Dan 4/1 and Shahdaroba 10/1.
The former has decent form with several including The Taj and Bungle
Inthejungle. The latter looked overpriced at 14/1 but with a NR only 10/1. Will
have to overcome top weight but I think he has it in the tank to make 7f and it
will suit. He is not too far behind Liber, Body and Soul, etc.
Doncaster 3.05 – Seagull has tipped Valbchek, but 3yr olds
have a terrible record in this and not convinced by it, but it is Segal. Is
Sole Power 9/4 a free gift? Should be too good. There are always a few
interesting ones in races like this. Was pretty much nothing between Masamah,
Pabusar and Confessional last time out. Masamah might be the better horse but
tries a 3rd set of headgear in as many races and Ryan is 3% (8/233)
at Donny so doesn’t bode well. Not fully convinced by Confessional, so that
leaves Pabusar 12/1 (w/o the favourite). I know I shouldn’t but I can’t help
back Roicead 18/1 who has mullered The Reaper and Nocturnal Affair previously
on GF.
Doncaster 3.40 – If Eastward Ho 16/1 makes it into the line
up I will get on. If not Hawaana 10/1
Doncaster 4.10 – Part of me doesn’t want to bet in this. I
never come out of top in small fields as tactics play a huge part. Cai Shen didn’t
really beat anything in last year’s race and although the Hannon factor is big
at Donny, can’t back him. The question is, is Beaten Up back to his best when
he trashed Al Kazeem by 4 lenghts over C&D, who btw thumped Meandre and
Dunaden by 4 lengths next time out or has Swedish Sailor improved as much as
Noble Mission. Haggas is no mug and has been banging in the winners but he’s
not overly bullish about Beaten Up. Therefore I’m gona punt on Swedish Sailor
2/1 to maintain the 3yr old domination on this race
Doncaster 4.45 – All the money is for Magic City now only
7/1. Is this deceit by the bookies? I don’t want to miss out regardless, but
this is really hard. I nearly opted for Alejandro, but not sure is a true
galloper. Born To Surprise 6/1 and Strictly Silver 9/4 look the ones to be on
Doncaster 5.15 – Powerful Wind 25/1 has let me down a few
times now, but he has the conditions to bounce right back from the front. Could
get massively carried away with this. Not bothering…
Total Staked £475.00, Total Returned £386.63
Total Staked £475.00, Total Returned £386.63
| £15.00 e/w Valbchek 8/1 - LOSE £0.00 |
| £15.00 e/w Regal Dan 9/2 - WIN £111.00 |
| £15.00 e/w Pabusar (w/o fav) 12/1 - LOSE £0.00 |
| £15.00 e/w Shahdaroba 10/1 - LOSE £0.00 |
| £15.00 e/w Roicead 20/1 - LOSE £0.00 |
| £30.00 Sole Power 5/2 - WIN £105.00 |
| £15.00 e/w Hawanna 10/1 - LOSE £0.00 |
| £30.00 Swedish Sailor 5/2 - LOSE £0.00 |
| £15.00 e/w Magic City 9/1 - LOSE £0.00 |
| £15.00 e/w Born To Surprise 15/2 - WIN £170.63 |
| £30.00 Strictly Silver 5/2 - LOSE £0.00 |
| £15.00 e/w Powerful Wind 50/1 - LOSE £0.00 |
| £57.50 e/w Trebles, Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00 |
Three year olds don't usually fare well in this race. Maybe Valbchek can defy that though?
ReplyDeleteWell the 3yr olds came 2nd and 3rd, but sadly no place for Valbchek! It really was very easy for Sole Power, so it was a free gift. Shame I didn't have the conviction and backed 2 other horses meaning made v.little money on it!
ReplyDeleteWell hindsight is a wonderful thing. I usually avoid piling money in to short odds and go with big odds on the nose. Alfie Joe 4.25 Chepstow at 14/1 might tempt me tomorrow along with a more feasible bet in Cone Donkey 8.20 Wolverhampton. What are your thoughts on these? Good luck with whatever bets you go for tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteIndeed. I often question my punting strategy, but am going well enough at the moment so will stick at it, though still have some daft bets. Have no idea how to dissect that 4.25 Chepstow race, but Alfie Joe is now 5/1! And the Wolves race, again, where to start! I avoid Class 4-6 races, but at Wolves I try to stick to C&D winners so Kai might have interested me, but staying clear! Good luck!
ReplyDelete