Friday 15 August 2014

Bets 15/08/2014

3.00 Newcastle - Mukhayyam 11/10. Stoute has a 40% SR here so sure he knows what he is doing by sending this one a long way.

3.20 Newbury - I remember landing this race couple years ago with Lily In Pink off top weight and I think Novirak 8/1 could do the same. The favourite is a 3yr old who has been put up 10lb for race won 2 weeks ago and that looks harsh. He could well be decent but Novirak is decent. Look at the form; it is rock solid. Appreciate has been off for a while but Fanshawe knows how to ready a horse after time off.

3.35 Newcastle - Trinity Star 11/2 with Cheekpieces back on and could have done better last time with more luck.

3.50 Deauville - Evita Peron 9/1 is def capable of winning a G3 in these conditions.

3.55 Newbury - This comes down to which form is better. Anthem Alex, Osaila, Cotai Glory or Limato? Tiggy Wiggy represents Anthem Alex form and is rock solid but Limato is probably the strongest form. However looking at distances beaten, excuses and ground I am tentatively siding with Blue Aegean 4/1

4.10 Newcastle - Lobster Pot 15/8 finished a fair way behind Tea in Transvaal on debut and ought to improve with that experience. TIT finished a couple lengths behind Taghrooda so at this level this form will be decent

4.20 Nottingham - Who is further ahead of their mark Scallop or Cay Dancer? Cay won me a pot very easily last time and now up 6, although Cam gets rid 5 of those. And Scallop walloped a maiden field and looking through lines suggestion is wads ahead too. Hmm. I think Scallop 13/8 might be ahead by more as will also no doubt improve a wad too as only 3rd race. I got merked by two Stoute favourites the other day so hoping not another one!

4.30 Newbury - Munfallet 5/1 has now got head in front, is ahead of mark and can go on soft ground. He has been running well behind some well handicapped horses and can now take advantage.

5.00 Newbury - Too The Stars 6/1 cost £800G is so well bred that can't ignore.

6.30 Newmarket - Have notes saying "Applebly looking forward to running this one". Referring to Arabian Oasis 5/2. Has entry for Derby.


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