21/02/2012 Bets

Yesterday I was a tad fortunate that I managed to tuck into the Teenando gamble. I went in at 7/1 and then remembered that I said I would hit Marisa with any steamers so I put another bet on at 6/1. The brilliant Best Price Guaranteed returned them both at 10/1. Not all bookies offer this and is sometimes worth bearing in mind. The other gamble Chookie Avon was butters. There was a move on Alderluck last night from 11/1 into 5/1 this morning and I remember backing this horse on Boxing Day a couple of years back only for it to be pulled up, but I must have thought it was half decent. Although, not sure my punting two years ago is a good benchmark. This morning Tom Segal put up Medermit for the Ryanair at 9/1. Was available at 9/1 between 8.00-8.30am. Not fully convinced by this. At the festival I have done okay over the last two years focusing on horses that have performed well in March at Chelts, not in December, but in March. Buena Vista @ 20/1 was the biggest winner following this path. Medermit is a mixed bag if you adopt this approach and there are a few smart performers still in that line up!

Charlie Longsdon has a 46% Strike Rate at Wetherby over the last 5 years, and 67% this season! O’Neill is 28%, Twiston-Davies 30% and Keighley 22% (+£30.68!!!).

Wetherby 2.10 – The Twiston-Davies horses have hit a wall, so although Swerwani Wolf is top of the market, really shouldn’t back a trainer in bad form, and definitely not in terrible form. I’m sure stats will show the odd winner, but can’t do it. Railway Dillon is an unknown quantity. Signalman might be a big price as fell at the last. O Crotaigh has been strolling home but has only proven his worth at Market Rasen. Kings horses are flying but not sure about Soir D’Estruval. I can’t bet in this. Too much going on…

Wetherby 3.15 – I’ve already back Alderluck at 7/1, so can’t go in again. Looking at it a number of these have a chance.

Wetherby looks hard today, let’s check out Taunton. Usually Nicholls dominates this (only strike-wise), but with reports of his horses coughing, maybe today is a good day to take him on across the board?

Taunton 2.00 – Nicholls has won this the last 3 years in a row! But as above have to take Nicholls on here and Urbain De Sivola looks a smart prospect. Took Ranjaan and Ardlui apart when last seen. I do want to highlight Definitive Memories as well; an expensive purchase who had an extremely impressive debut. No money for the horse at the moment, so sticking with the fav.

Taunton 3.40 – Great to see some big names mid week. Sire De Grugy must be the one to beat, but race a hard race on Friday. Doubts whether will be fully fit? Ski Sunday is a smart hurdler and I quite like the double figure prices available. I’m a fan of Edgardo, but in the Nicholls camp. Not sure why Highway code is 40/1 as has some good form next to his name, but must be a reason? I hope. Again Dee Ee Williams. 28/1 seems big bearing in mind close to Binocular and Thousands Stars on best form! Dare me must have a chance

Taunton 5.10 – Hobbs NHF Bandwagon Bertie Boru

Southwell 1.50 – Ingleby Arch will hopefully not battle it out with Cape of Storms at the front and take this. I think Punching needs 7f but if IA goes of quickly with CoS will be set up for Punching.

Southwell 2.20 – Surely between Pelican Rock and Samasana. The former 10lb better off than when losing by 1.5lenghts, but watching the race may well be not be enough.

Southwell 3.25 – La Estrella

Southwell 4.10 – Newport Arch has the better times next to his name

£5.00 e/w Ski Sunday 10/1 - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Ski Sunday 8/1 - LOSE (Stupid boy)

£5.00 e/w Alderluck 7/1 - LOSE

£10.00 Ingleby Arch 10/11 - WIN £20.00 (BPG Evens)

£5.00 e/w Newport Arch 5/1 - WIN £43.00

£10.00 Samasana 5/2 - WIN £35.00

£5.00 e/w Bertie Boru 20/1 - LOSE

£10.00 Urbain De Sivola 8/11 - WIN £10.00 (Deat Heat so half stake - Boooo)

£5.00 e/w Acc on Above - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Acc on Above - LOSE

£10.00 Acc La Estrella, Ingleby Arch, Urbain De Sivola - WIN £24.44 (Deat Heat so half stake - Boooo) - Basically was a double between La Estrella and Ingleby Arch. Hmmm...

Total Stake £110.00, Total Return £132.44


Disciplined P&L @ 21/02/12:

+£82.51

Reckless P&L @ 21/02/12:
+£208.05

AntePost P&L @ 21/02/12:

+£306.00

Total P&L @ 21/02/12:

+£596.56