15/02/2012 Bets

2.35 Fairyhouse – I can’t see beyond Galileo’s Choice here. After Sous Les Cieux won the Royal Bond @ Fairyhouse, I had a cheeky Ante Post bet on the Supreme Novices. This turned out to be a daft move looking at current prices, but heyho. Back to this race, and Galileo’s Choice was not far off SLC and had Midnight Game and Il Fenomeno (who Tom Segal picked out) comfortably behind. I’ll blurb more about Tom Segal and AP bets in future posts, but he has tipped up Treacle for the Grand National @ 33/1 today. Obviously very few, if anyone will get that price but was a sniff of 25’s left if you fancy it. Sorry, sidetracked, again. One does have to fear Terminal in this race and he holds multiple entries @ Cheltenham. Could be anything. GC may not offer much value but I’m keen and he has the right attributes for it to be a ‘disciplined’ bet.

1.40 Kelso – Lyvius is quoted @ 25/1 for the Triumph and Henderson has a good record in that race. I wonder if this is the one? I have no basis for backing this horse except this. Not seen any movement on Triumph market this morning. I often see money come in for well fancied AP horses prior to a prep race, so perhaps this is not the one? Absinthe should go close on easier ground.

3.40 Kelso – Simonsig. I really want to smash in BUT Knockara Beau could be anything over hurdles, Marsh Warbler has run some really decent races and Local Hero is part of the Triumph Crew of 2011. That is a crew and a half. So despite my flakiness I’m not tucking in.

3.20 Southwell – Lemon Drop Red ran a blinder at Kempton and was a good vibe about the horse on the day. Attracted a lot of money. Jumping let him down @ MusselB and perhaps the ground didn’t help?! Will find out today whether he’s a genuine one, but I fancy taking a punt on Little Fritz. Finished behind a useful Real Milan and Henderson and Bass team up well together though comments suggest he didn’t like the tacky surface. Everything is telling me don’t do it Desai. But I need some more I told you so’s.

3.50 Southwell – I think It’s A Gimme was given a bad ride @ Wincanton. McCoy back on board and though conceding weight should justify favouritism, but I do wonder whether Baby Shine can improve and take advantage of the 7lb allowance? Also interesting is the pedigree. Baby is from King’s Theatre as are the likes of Fingal Bay, Captain Chris, Voler La Ved, Menorah, Cue Card, etc. I heart KT! Not really sure why I've gone here, but, Native Beauty has the same mummy and daddy as Baby Shine if I am going down this road.

£10.00 Lyvius 10/11 - WIN £19.09

£50.00 Galileo’s Choice 2/7 - WIN £64.29 

£10.00 Baby Shine 3/1 - PLACED (by a nose, argh)

£5.00 e/w Little Fritz 8/1 - PLACED (by a nose, argh) £15.00

£5.00 e/w Acc on Above - PLACED (by 2 nostrils, argh) £36.47. 2 nostrils away from £635.84!!! :(

£5.00 e/w Native Beauty 13/2 - LOSE

£100.00 Total Stake, £134.85 Total Return 


Disciplined P&L @ 15/02/12:

+£14.29

Reckless P&L @ 15/02/12:
-£51.92