Another solid day yesterday despite getting the Coral Cup all wrong. Will need to be careful today as are some awfully difficult handicaps to solve.
I feel a bad day coming on.
1.30 Chelts - JLT
On all know form Vautour 7/4 wins this. His Supreme win last year was phenomenal. There is an argument to say that Ptit Zig beat Josses Hill by equivalent of 13 lengths and Vautour only did by 6 lengths. PZ is also higher rated than Vautour.
I do also like Apache Stronghold but I'm not sure can turn tables on Vautour.
2.05 Chelts - Pertemps
If Trustan Times 22/1 e/w (5 places) was a few lbs lower last year like he is today he would have won. Let's hope he can today.
Edeymi 9/1 e/w (5 places) looks like another potential Martin plot and Regal Encore 10/1 e/w (5 places) who was 2nd in Champion bumper couple years back looks to have a chance.
Sybarite might be one to back in running at a big price but I'm not sure will get home ahead of enough rivals as always leaves it too late to get going. Call The Cops is tempting but Brother Brian 12/1 e/w (5 places) is still couple pounds better off and still looks ahead of his mark. Just hope he stays.
This is so hard and actually I might not back all of these. It's a stupid betting strategy. I might back them on the nose.
2.40 Chelts - Ryanair
Don Cossack 9/2 e/w looks like another likely Irish winner. Elliot reckoned this was his best chance of a winner this week. He does look good and whilst has not won here before looked like was travelling well enough in the RSA.
The biggest danger to Don Cossack looks like Ma Filleue. I'm not sure what the record of this race is like with fillies, but judged on last years 2nd at the festival not sure it matters apart from the face gets a massive 7lb allowance. This puts her on a par with Don Cossack on ratings. If you use Hollywell as a marker then it'll be bloody close between these two. It's get more complicated by the fact Balder Success then beat MF by 3 lengths.
Out of the 3 I will stick with DC largely due to confidence of Elliot, but I do note that Elliot at the beginning of the season said he was not top of the G1 class
Wishfull Thinking 33/1 e/w is an old boy now and will do well to win. However, I'm not sure why he was run at 3m or 2m because I think he is at his best over 2m 4f on good ground, so today is near perfect and he is a C&D winner. Eduard looks to be a serious chaser in the making and has solid form lines. At 20/1 is off some interest but wonder if it's too soon and not yet run here at Chelts before
3.20 Chelts - World Hurdle
Last year's 3rd and 4th return without Annie Power and More of That and I think they both have solid chances.
Zarkandar has drifted to 7/1 e/w (4 places) and I think that's mad, but the issue I have is the hill. I'm not convinced handles it, but comes here in better form than last year along with all the Nicholls horses
At Fishers Cross 25/1 e/w (4 places) gets a small bet because McCoy has to win a race this festival, Curtis is quietly confident, we know he can win at chelts, Oscar pedigree good for good ground and blinkers will hopefully sort out jumping issues. I know part of me is doing this because he has lost me a wad of cash before, but sod it.
Reve De Sivola will probably struggle with the quick ground.
Saphir Du Rheu is class bit still has to prove can handle the ground and for something is stopping me back him but I'm not sure what. Could be reckless!
I know I shouldn't back another horse and in doing so flags that I can't pick the winner, but Whisper 10/1 e/w (4 places) really does handle to hill, is improving, and was not far away from quality of SDR over hurdles.
4.00 Chelts - Stable Plate
And this is where we throw even more money away :)
There's an obvious bet in this. Monetaire 8/1 e/w (5 places) From the Pipe stable who landed a gamble yesterday and who always have well handicapped horse in this race. The form with Solar Impulse puts him miles ahead of mark.
I remember backing Burn and Turn 25/1 e/w (5 places) and landing a decent prize in Ireland and then using that as form to find Road to Riches. I think is well handicapped ignoring the last race.
Buywise is a massive danger but has too many jumping issues, No Buts is interesting too as the Sound Investment form is strong and Champion Court is on a seriously low mark now. Caid Du Berlais is tempting but stats show low weights do best in this so I'll play my luck with just the two picks
4.40 Chelts - Kim Muir
Does not get any easier:
Seems to be a gamble going down on The Package 10/1 e/w 5 places. Has the best jockey onboard. Pipe yard does well and TP does have a big race in him. The other Pipe runner Standinf Ovation has chances, but not sure gets the hill
Clondaw Knight 20/1 e/w 5 places is very exciting. Improving, ahead of the handicapper and has a jockey with the best record on this course. I always pay attention to Harrington runners as well
Ericht 40/1 e/w 5 places solid course runner, massive step down in class and might have been Johns Spirits here with a clearer run of this mark
Just a Par 18/1 has just a chance
I feel a bad day coming on.
1.30 Chelts - JLT
On all know form Vautour 7/4 wins this. His Supreme win last year was phenomenal. There is an argument to say that Ptit Zig beat Josses Hill by equivalent of 13 lengths and Vautour only did by 6 lengths. PZ is also higher rated than Vautour.
I do also like Apache Stronghold but I'm not sure can turn tables on Vautour.
2.05 Chelts - Pertemps
If Trustan Times 22/1 e/w (5 places) was a few lbs lower last year like he is today he would have won. Let's hope he can today.
Edeymi 9/1 e/w (5 places) looks like another potential Martin plot and Regal Encore 10/1 e/w (5 places) who was 2nd in Champion bumper couple years back looks to have a chance.
Sybarite might be one to back in running at a big price but I'm not sure will get home ahead of enough rivals as always leaves it too late to get going. Call The Cops is tempting but Brother Brian 12/1 e/w (5 places) is still couple pounds better off and still looks ahead of his mark. Just hope he stays.
This is so hard and actually I might not back all of these. It's a stupid betting strategy. I might back them on the nose.
2.40 Chelts - Ryanair
Don Cossack 9/2 e/w looks like another likely Irish winner. Elliot reckoned this was his best chance of a winner this week. He does look good and whilst has not won here before looked like was travelling well enough in the RSA.
The biggest danger to Don Cossack looks like Ma Filleue. I'm not sure what the record of this race is like with fillies, but judged on last years 2nd at the festival not sure it matters apart from the face gets a massive 7lb allowance. This puts her on a par with Don Cossack on ratings. If you use Hollywell as a marker then it'll be bloody close between these two. It's get more complicated by the fact Balder Success then beat MF by 3 lengths.
Out of the 3 I will stick with DC largely due to confidence of Elliot, but I do note that Elliot at the beginning of the season said he was not top of the G1 class
Wishfull Thinking 33/1 e/w is an old boy now and will do well to win. However, I'm not sure why he was run at 3m or 2m because I think he is at his best over 2m 4f on good ground, so today is near perfect and he is a C&D winner. Eduard looks to be a serious chaser in the making and has solid form lines. At 20/1 is off some interest but wonder if it's too soon and not yet run here at Chelts before
3.20 Chelts - World Hurdle
Last year's 3rd and 4th return without Annie Power and More of That and I think they both have solid chances.
Zarkandar has drifted to 7/1 e/w (4 places) and I think that's mad, but the issue I have is the hill. I'm not convinced handles it, but comes here in better form than last year along with all the Nicholls horses
At Fishers Cross 25/1 e/w (4 places) gets a small bet because McCoy has to win a race this festival, Curtis is quietly confident, we know he can win at chelts, Oscar pedigree good for good ground and blinkers will hopefully sort out jumping issues. I know part of me is doing this because he has lost me a wad of cash before, but sod it.
Reve De Sivola will probably struggle with the quick ground.
Saphir Du Rheu is class bit still has to prove can handle the ground and for something is stopping me back him but I'm not sure what. Could be reckless!
I know I shouldn't back another horse and in doing so flags that I can't pick the winner, but Whisper 10/1 e/w (4 places) really does handle to hill, is improving, and was not far away from quality of SDR over hurdles.
4.00 Chelts - Stable Plate
And this is where we throw even more money away :)
There's an obvious bet in this. Monetaire 8/1 e/w (5 places) From the Pipe stable who landed a gamble yesterday and who always have well handicapped horse in this race. The form with Solar Impulse puts him miles ahead of mark.
I remember backing Burn and Turn 25/1 e/w (5 places) and landing a decent prize in Ireland and then using that as form to find Road to Riches. I think is well handicapped ignoring the last race.
Buywise is a massive danger but has too many jumping issues, No Buts is interesting too as the Sound Investment form is strong and Champion Court is on a seriously low mark now. Caid Du Berlais is tempting but stats show low weights do best in this so I'll play my luck with just the two picks
4.40 Chelts - Kim Muir
Does not get any easier:
Seems to be a gamble going down on The Package 10/1 e/w 5 places. Has the best jockey onboard. Pipe yard does well and TP does have a big race in him. The other Pipe runner Standinf Ovation has chances, but not sure gets the hill
Clondaw Knight 20/1 e/w 5 places is very exciting. Improving, ahead of the handicapper and has a jockey with the best record on this course. I always pay attention to Harrington runners as well
Ericht 40/1 e/w 5 places solid course runner, massive step down in class and might have been Johns Spirits here with a clearer run of this mark
Just a Par 18/1 has just a chance
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