The bookies are bricking it about a Mullins whitewash, but I don't know how much game playing is going on. Just remember form, form, form. Festival form, course form, ground form, trainer form, current form and you'll have a fighting chance.
I am going back to e/w punting on anything over 7/2 for my own financial safety reasons!
I have a feeling Henderson is going to have a decent 4 days . Townsend does not have a bad few rides either.
Chelts 1.30 - Supreme Novices -
All the rage was for Douvan and somewhat still is. Not convinced. L'Ami Serge has a huge chance but I will question the ground for him. Jollyallan also is running very well at the moment and would be fitting for McCoy to open the scoring. However a horse that beat Jollyallan on G/S ground in a bumper and was 2nd in a bumper at the festival last year is Shansehill 12/1 (e/w 3 places). I'm a tiny bit unsure about the form with No More Heroes, but I think the ground is going to help.
Qewy has a brilliant chance and a serious turn of foot but will have to step up again and has to deal with another different jockey, and may need it softer. I don't know enough about Tell Us More, but we all know how well Giggy Town do with their horses so needs consideration.
There is another Mullins horse Alvisio Ville 25/1 (e/w) might get a half bet as was favourite to beat Nichols Canyon last time out and even Mullins thought would so perhaps, just perhaps was a bad day?
Chelts 2.05 - Arkle -
I appear to have a rather big AP bet on Sail By The Sea 66/1. Notes suggest the owner comments made me do this. Looked brilliant last time out so you never know, but I think was a daft bet and this is seriously hard as Un De Sceaux 4/5 looks bloody good. I will wrap him up in a double with Annie Power as not backing any odds on horses today.
I don't think UDS can be beaten but I think Josses Hill 14/1 (e/w) who was closest to Vatour last year might get the closet to UDS. Has been running consistently well and will come here peaked to the max.
Chelts 2.40 - Ultima Solutions Handicap -
Ridiculous handicap! Will have to try hard not to back more than a few! Avoid Nicholls horses in these long distance chase events and back O'Neill!
Black Thunder too high in weights, I think Cape Tribulation has lost it, No Planning has lost way, not overly convinced about Druids Nephew on this ground and looks handicapped to tilt, Gallant Oscar has decent form at Navan but all of rain soaked ground, not sure Barrakilla will stay, Theatre Guide might have a chance based on run in December but not in good nick. Ground looks against Annacotty, Tenor N and Shangani. Don't think Grand Jesture up to it. Not sure According to Trev has any improvement left, Azure Fly long way to go, What A Warrior just has not gone well at Chelts, Lamb or Cod doesn't look well handicapped anymore
Not sure Pendra is going to stay and I didn't like the way Ned Stark failed to get up the Cheltenham hill. Monbeg Dude preferrably wants further. Smart Freddy might be well handicapped but not sure.
Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has picked Gallant Oscar 10/1. Has a decent chance.
Gevrey Chambetin 14/1 (e/w 5 places) goes well fresh and blinkers in his last race really seemed to perk him up.
Mendip Express 16/1 (e/w 5 places) looks too big. Nearly won the Beecher, in good form, trainer good record here, horse in good form and has won here before.
Indian Castle 22/1 (e/w 5 places) maybe would have cliched 3rd at the festival last year. Arrives in good form as does trainer so a place could be up for grabs
Dursey Sound and Lost Legend both 50/1 are hard to back but they are O'Neill and he does so well in handicap chases over 3m+, but not sure can. Hmm
Chelts 3.20 - Champion Hurdle -
Artic Fire does have e/w chance, but not going to back him. Bertimont very little chance. Hurricane Fly is a legend and I have a few quid AP and big odds, but not recommending today. Kitten Rock too much to find. Jezki of course has a chance to retain crown, but I'm not overly convinced.
Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has picked Vantieux 33/1. Barry was saying at the beginning of the season could be a champion hurdle horse.
I've watched a few videos now and Faugheen 11/10 looks rock solid. He's 2lb higher in the ratings and I think he might just fly away, but I'm going to put Faugheen in an acc as I'm not bothered about doubling up and go for The New One 4/1 e/w. I still think should have won last year and Sam just needs to make sure does not let Faugheen go to far out of sight
Chelts 4.00 - OLBG Mares -
Quevega must be peeved now this is a G1, however in similar fashion Annie Power as seemingly fragile as Quevega turns up without a prep win. If she is fit she wins. Top rated with solid form and course form. The first four home ought to be Glens Melody, Polly Peachum and L'Unique.
I am going to put Faugheen & Annie Power in a double as can't bet on Annie Power at odds on. Henderson's lot are in really good form coming into the festival so Polly Peachum 10/1 (e/w) gets backed as does Glen's Melody 6/1 (e/w). The market without Annie Power offers little value so e/w seems like the best bet if she flops. L'Unique has a few pounds to find with Polly Peachum so will leave out.
Caroles Spirit and Bitofapuzzle next best but will stick with the top end of market as looks right. This is def a tricast moment.
Chelts 4.40 - National Hunt Chase - Thunder and Roses top rated is tempting but Very Wood 4/1 (e/w 4 places) is a course winner and won a G2 Chase at Navan very easily last time. Again I think the betting is correct and Sego Success 11/2 (e/w 4 places) is biggest danger.
Again, forecast territory
Segal has picked Perfect Gentleman 12/1.
Chelts 5.15 - Novice Handicap Chase -
Segal has tipped 2 on my shortlist. Keltus 10/1 (e/w 5 places) and Killala Quay 16/1 (e/w 5 places). Everything in last few years says don't back Nicholls chasers at Chelts, but Keltus nearly won the Fred Winter last year and Nicholls has plotted a big handicap win every big race day and Keltus fits the bill. He had a hard passage through but stormed up the hill. KQ ran a blinder in Neptune last year and ought to be able to match his hurdles mark. Back on better ground, left handed, must have a decent chance.
Generous Random cruised into the home straight here at Chelts last time but nearly got done on the line and one horse who could turn the tables is Irish Cavalier 14/1 (e/w 5 places). This horse stormed up the hill and now has a 5lb pull with GR and I also think action will be better suited on quicker ground.
Horizontal Speed could be a massive danger but I can't work out from his races if is well handicapped or not. Potentially yes but I don't know, but if he is then Golden Hoof is far better handicapped as beat HS very easily at Aintree, but not convinced.
The favourite Thomas Crapper has every chance too. He will be close to leading up the home straight but i think something will fly passed him. (I hope it will)
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