Wednesday 11 March 2015

Bets 11/03/2015 - Chelts Day 2

Being back in the winners enclosure is brilliant. 12/1, 14/1, 22/1, 10/1, 11/1 placed, a 6/1 winner and the final winner @ 14/1 was just divine. The race panned out exactly how I called it.

Fair play to Mullins yesterday. The hype was valid and really should have been 4 winners.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped the following. 8 horses! That's ridiculous from the genius as is a lot of outlay, so will need to pick and choose which ones to back

2.40 Chelts - Hammersly Lake 25/1, Un Atout 16/1
4.00 Chelts - Toutancarmont 8/1
4.40 Chelts - Bouveril 16/1, Baron Alco 25/1
5.15 Chelts - Jetstream Jack 25/1, Wait For Me 12/1

Called into work - so less research than yesterday :( FFS!

Sticking with the e/w strategy as needed:

1.30 Chelts - Neptune 

I am on Windsor Park 10/1 e/w AP already, but he has to turn the tables on both Nic Canyon and Outlander. I reckon Windsor Park could still win this with more experience under his belt on better ground. Will need to up his jumping game though.

I'm sure Mullins will get another 1-2 today, but I can't pick the winner so am leaving this one today.


2.05 Chelts - RSA Chase -

I had Don Poli 7/4 marked down as a banker a while back. After yesterday's romp by Mullins no reason to move away from this. Already a G1 winner and won at the festival last year. I have to admit I'm worried about lack of experience over fences though.

Wounded Warrior is decent but needs slower ground and looks held by Don Poli. Kings Palace was a flop at the festival last year and not sure will get his own way upfront. Adriana Des Mottes (Walsh/Mullins) is 33/1, but I can't see ADM winning on all known form. Maybe next year.

Mulholland had a decent winner in The Druids Nephew yesterday and they are bullish about the Young Master, but I think will need to improve a lot as will If In Doubt

I backed Southfield Theatre 20/1 e/w Ante Post and still think has a decent chance. Apache Jack back AP too.

2.40 Coral Cup - 

Aux Ptits Soins could bolt up but even Nicholls says dont' know enough about him.

Marinero is quite interesting but was a poor run last time,

Time for a big priced outsider. Vasco Du Ronceray 50/1 e/w (5 places) was travelling pretty well in the Betfair hurdle until was hampered. He absolutely bolted up in his previous race but is only 5lb higher. Whilst that form is not brilliant, he has put up a couple good performances at Chelts before and has a strong e/w shout.

Un Atout does have a good chance based on his run in the Supreme last year. Will have to get back into hurdle mode, but on a mark of 145 and Mullins banging them in Segal might have picked the winner! He has also picked Hammersly Lake 20/1  e/w who again also has a very good chance. I like the way he powered up the hill.

If Goodwood Mirage 16/1 e/w (5 places) can sort jumping out I'm convinced is well handicapped and better handicapped than Activial. However clearly it's a risk to back to dodgey jumper in such a hard race. There was a fair amount of money for the horse yesterday so hopefully a good sign.

If Lac Fontana has improved enough and bounces back to form will have a chance, but too much if for me. If headgear works for Dell Arca another one who has a chance. Mijhaar is interesting but Ferguson horses were poor yesterday.

Volnay De Thaix caught eye with Rock on Ruby form, but top weight looks tough. Bears Affair is tempting, but not convinced enough.

The 4th horse I have to bet on is Baradari 16/1 e/w (5 places). Ran a blinder in the Fred winter last year and step up in trip has proved in last race to bring out the improvement. Will be flying home late


3.20 Chelts - Queen Mother Chase - 

I think Sire De Grugy 7/2 e/w is the one to be with. Watch his win last year. Was a quick time and he had a lot more left in the tank. Moore reckons he is better than last year.

If Sprinter return to best then fine, only one winner, but that's a real big ask. Big Bucks couldn't do it....
 Simply Ned?

4.00 Chelts - Cross Country - 

The market has this right. 3 way race for me except I'm not sure about this Toutancarmont. Segal has backed him, but for me Duke of Lucca 6/1, Any Currency 6/1 and Sire Collonges 15/2. All have the form and weight to win this. Combination Tricast is about 225/1.

Aiden Coleman may well have screwed Any Currency's chances by driving him home by 12 lengths last time. Was no need for it and now has gone up 9lbs, but he really can power up that hill.


4.40 Chelts - Fred Winter - 

I know very little abut Juvenile form this season, so no confidence in whatever I pick.

After wasting at least 30 mins I've decided to go with Souriyan 25/1 e/w (4 places). Battered Sebastian Beach who also in this race on similar ground, has a nice claim, was decent on the flat and just hope for a bit of luck!


5.15 Chelts - Champion Bumper - 

Segal has gone for Jetstream Jack 25/1 (e/w) - I agree from reading 'whispers' about how good he is.

I think Supasundae 12/1 and Moon Racer 7/1 have good chances, but this is a wide open race as it is every year! Mullins has 6 runners!!!

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