Friday 13 March 2015

Bets 13/03/2015 - Chelts Day 4

I can't tell you how peeved I am with the starter at Cheltenham. Monetaire really should have won the Stable Plate. The unnecessary restart lost Monetaire the race. Had a double ton double with The Package who won the next race. Small consolation that Segal picked Darna 40/1. I'm just under £4k up with £100 e/w stakes on mine and £25 e/w on Segals bets so I can't possibly punt and lose it all on the last day can I?

Tom Segal from the RP has tipped:
1.30 - Top Notch 9/1
2.05 - Princely Conn 16/1, Sort It Out, 16/1
3.20 - Djakadam 8/1
4.00 - Carsonstown Boy 20/1
4.40 - Le Mercurey 10/1, McKinley 14/1
5.15 - Grumeti -25/1

I'm off to Chelts...........

1.30 Chelts - Triumph

There are so many with potential in this race but after watching Peace and Co 3/1 including here at Cheltenham. Very good horse.

I'm finding it difficult to find out whether the Irish lot in this race are any good or not. Beltor and Hargam also looks bloody good but will stick with the favourite


2.05 Chelts - County Hurdle 

Another mental puzzle. Dormello Mo 33/1 e/w 5 places has won 3 races over hurdles but each of them he has romped. If he somehow finds his form he could be well in.

The Betfair Hurdle form look very strong. Ebony Express would do seriously well to win again on a penalty so soon after last week. Wicklow Brave doesn't look good enough.Violet Dancer went up 9lbs and that will be tough to overcome. Cheltentian has a really good chance, but again up 5lb and carries top weight which will be tough. Forced Family Fun 50/1 e/w 5 places was running really well with the leading pack but had a really bad stumble and never recovered. Keeps the same weight has surely has a better chance than the 50/1 available.  Activial showed the Betfair form is decent so worth a pop at a big price.

Chelts 2.40 Albert Bartlett 

I don't think Black Hercules is going to get the ground he wants so have to take him on. If I'm able to ignore No More Heroes 5/1 e/w last run then is definitely the one to be one. Navan form a bonus and beat Shaneshill who ran a blinder on day 1.

Caracci Apache beat Blaklion last time out, but I'm not sure whether that was a genuine defeat for Blaklion or not. The fact that Twiston does well with stayers and Blacklion 16/1 e/w has more experience on side and has won over C&D I will back him

Chelts 3.20 - Gold Cup

I don't think Many Clouds is good enough and is yet to win a G1. If Djakadam wins then hats off to Mullins, but fell at Cheltenham, was rubbish in the Hennessey and is still a baby in Gold Cup books. However Mullins rates him, Walsh chose him and Segal tipped him, so have to back him Djakadam 8/1 e/w. 

Coneygree - big ask and will probably set the race up up for a decent test. When he defected from the the RSA and it rained my eyes turned to Conti. Last year I'm convinced the top 3 got quicker ground on the run in and had Conti not swayed all over the place he could have nailed it. Cheekpieces look to have sorted him out and Conti 9/2 could turn out to be massive as has the form, has the trainer form and Dodging bullete proved can turn it around


Chelts 4.00 - Foxhunter

Would be amazing for Salisfy to win again, but surely he has had his time now. I'm not great wit Hunter chases, but I'll go for Carsonstown Boy 14/1 e/w who was 2nd in this last year, On The Fringe 8/1 e/w who was 3rd in this last year and Paint The Clouds 9/2 e/w who can give Warren more to cheer about. Looks in decent nick.


Chelts 4.40 Pipe Hurdle

Full Shift 16/1 e/w was favourite for this race last year and is back. Been a long break yes, but reckon Hendo has something up his sleeve for this one!

Also I will Jolly if have cracked this puzzle with Jollys' Cracked It 20/1 e/w. Was last in the betfair hurdle at one point without being heavily ridden. Finished really well, so step up with suit and they have one of the best conditional jockeys onboard.

5.15 Grand Annual

Clearly Ned Butline 9/2 e/w is going to go off a really short favourite with the McCoy factor. However based on last year's effort alone in this race he is a worthy favourite. The Giggestown machine got in the way last year!

Ted Veale 14/1 e/w (5 places) is a festival winner, comes here off a really good boylesport race and it could be the Martin and Cooper show to spoil McCoy's Chelts swansong.



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