Bets 15/03/2013 - Chelts Day 4

Merkage. Tom, you saved me from a white wash, 3 times. Good Old Boy!

This time last year I cleaned up; 4g of the good stuff. I’m not in form this time round but that’s not a prevention mechanism. I’m lumping. I slapped on a £100 e/w @ 10/1 straight after last year’s festival on the horse I said I won’t have beaten last year; Long Run. Though oddly and fortunately I backed the late Synchronised. Right let’s see what my current saviour has to save.

Chelts 2.05 – Princeton Plains 20/1

Chelts 2.40 – Our Vinnie 14/1

Chelts 4.00 – Galant Nuit 33/1

Chelts 4.40 – Village Vic 12/1, Bridgets Pet 33/1

Chelts 1.30 – JCB – Seriously, tough one. The favourite Our Conor is likely to be backed heavily after Flaxen Flare won, but that was in a handicap which he was uber lowly rated and the rest in that race Blood Cotil and Runcana didn’t go all that well in that race. Brave but I’ll take him on despite the Irish roll. Nicholls massively fancies Far West and there are obvious claims. I backed Lac Fontana 16/1 Antepost before Segal put it up and then his price went up and also Hidden Justice 16/1.

Chelts 2.05 – O’Brien County – Wow. The handicaps just get harder and harder. I’m taking 1 wild punt only – not throwing my money away again. Nicholls handicap hurdlers are actually doing pretty well this time round and I think Brampour 50/1 looks shockingly overpriced. His last 3 races were too far for him. Read the form below and you can’t not be impressed. In fact in the Greatwood ’11 Handicap over C&D he was a solid winner of 149. He’s technically on 147 because of the claimer, but that’s the only thing that’s putting me off. I’ve never heard of James Cowley but he’s been placed in nearly half his races; albeit only won 2 this year.

Chelts 2.40 – Albert Barlett - Our Vinnie 14/1 has a serious chance in this. His form has been massively boosted by Rule The World. However the thorn clearly is At Fishers Cross 5/2 who beat The New One, but again The New One was far from his best on that ground that day, but At Fishers Cross did show brute force up the Cleeve. R f/c.

Chelts 3.20 – The Gold Cup – As above I have £100 e/w on Long Run @ 10/1. That was my confidence on him this time last year. I still think he has a decent chance and I’m very hopeful of him placing at the least. If Silviniaco Conti had won a race at Cheltenham I’m sure he’d be odds on after having beaten Long Run and routed The Giant Bolster. I’m on a recent fan of him and if he hacks up, which many people have an inclining he might, we’ll all kick ourselves, but the hill has to remain a worry. I was all over Sir Des Champs for this before the race and I’ve backed him all season long to win this. I can’t do it though. Firstly because poor Old Boy Davy has someone bust a lung and it’s a farce that McCoy has wangled his way onboard but secondly I already have £200 on Long Run. I don’t rate Cape Tribulation. Maybe I’m being harsh, but that’s my choice. Wayward and Monbeg surely can’t finish in the money. I think The Bolster is out of his depth in this field. Captain Chris has a squeak of a place but his horses are just not game at the moment. And then there’s my boy Bob’s Worth. What a freaking hero. However, I genuinely believe his lack of a prep race might do him. After all this I’m still with Long Run. I think a tricast is in order though with The Henderson 2 and Sir Des Champs.

Chelts 4.00 – Foxhunter – Flip a coin between top 2 in the market; Chapoturgeon and Salsify. Baring no accidents full expect them to finish it out at the end again, but my hunter chase knowledge is 3/10.

Chelts 4.40 – Martin Pipe – There is one stand out in this for me. Kells Belle 33/1. Either there is something wrong with her I don’t know about, either I’m being really stupid or the 6 lengths behind Quevega and hack up in higher grade handicap over C&D were both flukes. Make your own minds up! Art Professor 28/1 who ran a blinder in this last year coming from the Williams yard off the same mark as last year also looks far too overpriced for me. Also in great form winning last race; albeit luckily.

Chelts 5.15 – Johnny Henderson – Bloody hell. Where to start. Tetlami 18/1. Goes at Cheltenham, higher mark over hurdles, must have a chance. The other one I just have to go with is Shooters Wood 18/1. I know Nicholls has not bagged a chase win in a LONG time here but he must have a chance on current form and at the weights with French Opera is the better value.