Bets 30/07/2013 - Glorious Goodwood Day 1

Sod the stats game again! That cost me 4 bets. But a cheeky Weld double and two decent e/w punts on Admiral Barry 33/1 and Top othe Ra 20/1 was just want I needed before the start of Goodwood! Tom Pricewise Segal has picked out 4 today:

Goodwood 1.55 – Clon Brulee 10/1

Goodwood 3.40 – Sir Graham Wade 12/1

Galway 6.45 – Brendan Brackan 20/1, Swiflty Done, 20/1

I’m blindly putting a fiver on all Johnston horses and an accumulator and same with Hannon & Hughes J

Goodwood 1.55 – Blue Surf 7/1 is a C&D winner loves deep ground, but is versatile and form over 10f is sound, but perhaps too high in the weights? I’ve gone through the card and either soft ground rules them out or I just don’t think they can hack it at this level. However one horse who I backed last time and think will like the step down in trip and has run well on soft is Tepmokea 25/1. I think he is too big, although to overcome the draw will need to be dropped behind and then driven through field which is def not style. But on basis gets 12f on soft means a few extra yards may not be out of the question. Fast or Free will have to be mega fit for first race of campaign on testing ground.

Goodwood 2.30 – This is tough. I think the ground is going to be mega testing for these kids and so those rested might have an advantage? Problem in Anticapted who is following a similar path to Zebedee has soft ground in blood from Whipper, but then again Supplicant who beat him last time out is far fresher and Kyllachy kids handle soft too. Hughesy rides for Hannon have always finished ahead of any others jockeys for Hannon in this race, but with conditions like this surely will come too soon for Anticapted, even though clearly Hughes dropped him away when now chance with winner. Therefore I elect Supplicant 10/3 who wins on form along and a punt on Brown Sugar 14/1 who just didn’t settle last time. Looked very quick on the bridle in penultimate race and pedigree suggests ground will be fine.

Goodwood 3.05 – I doubt Aljamaaheer will run and with a penalty would surely have been tough anyway. Will producer handle the going? Flopped when was heavy once and no idea when writing this how soft it will get, but Dutch Art pedigree should me does. However Hughes is dead keen on this so must be of interest. I think I’m going to regret taking him on but I have to with Garswood 9/2. Fahey thinks a lot of this horse and is in tremendous form. 3yr olds have a decent record in this with their allowance and we know the horse goes on soft/heavy ground. Professor and Casper Netscher are still on my short list and can’t find any reason to remove them

Goodwood 3.40 –This is very tough, but first and foremost Suraj 25/1 is the one that straight away looks wrongly priced.. 14f perfect, ground no problem, down in weights, Queally onboard. Montaser really peeved me off last time but also ground wrong for him today. I think Guarantee 12/1 has a better chance than SGW based on previous races.

If I get a chance will hit rest of Goodwood and Galway..

4.30pm update..harder still

Goodwood 4.50 – I’m torn between Jack’s Revenge, Democretes, Uppercut (winner I picked last year), and Juvenal. The first two are on my watch list, both handicapped well enough. Two of these are Hannon gees.

Goodwood 5.25 – I’ve been waiting to back Tioman Legend for a while. Now is the time in first time blinkers back in trip. But this is really open and can’t choose between Cruise To The Limit, Valima, Fair Value and Waseem Faris

Galway 6.10 – Tarfasha only if another short price for an acc

Galway 6.45 – With Segal on this. Swiftly Done.

Galway 7.15 – Pirate Cove  but only in a double with Tarfasha